Abstract
Purpose
The aim of this study was to examine prognostic factors in polytraumatic patients with liver injury and to develop a scoring system for traumatic liver injury (SSTLI) to predict mortality.
Methods
The medical records of 175 patients treated for traumatic liver injury from July 2009 to April 2013 were reviewed. The primary outcome variable was hospital mortality. All risk factors were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression analysis. The SSTLI was created based on the predictive power of each factor.
Results
Age, injury severity score (ISS), trauma and injury severity score, the shock index, and the volume of packed red blood cells transfused were strong predictors of mortality. We hypothesized that the SSTLI would use five clinical measures (total bilirubin, prothrombin time, serum creatinine, age, and ISS). Each measure was scored 0–1 (age and ISS) or 0–3 (total bilirubin, prothrombin time, and creatinine), with 3 indicating the most severe derangement. The receiver-operating characteristic curve of the SSTLI was significant at post-traumatic days 0, 1, 3, and 5 [area under the curve (AUC), 0.830; AUC, 0.912; AUC, 0.941; and AUC, 0.930, respectively]. A value of 5 points was the threshold for reliability dividing low-risk (<5) from high-risk (≥5) patients.
Conclusions
The SSTLI may be available to predict mortality in polytraumatic patients with liver injury, although external validation is needed before widespread implementation.
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Acknowledgments
This study was supported by a clinical research grant from Pusan National University Hospital 2013.
Conflict of interest
No potential conflict of interest relevant to this article is reported. Ho Hyun Kim, Jae Hun Kim, Chan-Yong Park, and Hyun Min Cho declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Ethical standard
This project received research approval from the Research Ethics Board of the local university and was therefore performed in accordance with the ethical standards set forth in the 1964 Declaration of Helsinki and its later amendments.
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Kim, H.H., Kim, J.H., Park, CY. et al. Scoring system for traumatic liver injury (SSTLI) in polytraumatic patients: a predictor of mortality. Eur J Trauma Emerg Surg 41, 375–385 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00068-014-0454-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00068-014-0454-z