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Time series analysis of Japanese encephalitis and weather in Linyi City, China

  • Original Article
  • Published:
International Journal of Public Health

Abstract

Objectives

To examine the relationship between meteorological factors and epidemiological pattern of Japanese encephalitis in Linyi City during 1956–2004.

Methods

Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between monthly JE incidence and weather factors. Logarithmic transformation was applied to the JE incidence series to assure the normality and homogeneity of variance of the residuals. The effect of mass vaccination on JE incidence was also evaluated using a transfer function in the time series analysis.

Results

The analysis suggested that monthly average temperature [β = 0.0574, 95% confidence interval (CI) = (0.0172, 0.0976)] and relative humidity [β = 0.0082, 95% CI = (0.0004, 0.0158)] were positively associated with the logarithmic incidence of Japanese encephalitis after adjusting for mass vaccination in this area.

Conclusions

Weather variables might be treated as possible predictors of Japanese encephalitis incidence for regions with similar geographic, weather, and socio-economic conditions to Linyi, China.

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Acknowledgments

This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant No. 30771873) and partially supported by the social welfare research special program of the Ministry of Science and Technology, China (grant No. 2003DIA6N009). One of the authors (HLL) thanks the studentship support by a grant from the NSFC/RGC Joint Research Scheme sponsored by the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Project No. N_CUHK454_08).

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China

    Hualiang Lin, Sarah R. Hossain, Suzanne C. Ho & Linwei Tian

  2. Linyi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Linyi, China

    Liuqing Yang

  3. State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese CDC, Beijing, China

    Qiyong Liu

  4. School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China

    Tong Wang

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  1. Hualiang Lin
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  2. Liuqing Yang
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  3. Qiyong Liu
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  4. Tong Wang
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  5. Sarah R. Hossain
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Linwei Tian.

Additional information

H. Lin and L. Yang contributed equally to this work.

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Lin, H., Yang, L., Liu, Q. et al. Time series analysis of Japanese encephalitis and weather in Linyi City, China. Int J Public Health 57, 289–296 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00038-011-0236-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00038-011-0236-x

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