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Linking historic developments and future scenarios of industrial energy use in the Netherlands between 1993 and 2040

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Abstract

Monitoring energy efficiency improvements is essential for policy evaluation and for future policy making. We estimate the annual energy efficiency improvements achieved in six Dutch industry sectors between 1993 and 2008 by using a bottom-up model. This model incorporates the production data and specific energy consumption values of 122 products. We estimate annual energy efficiency improvements of 1.0 % per annum (p.a.) for the total industry (excluding non-energy use); even though the results are subject to uncertainties due to errors in the energy statistics, we consider them as strong indication that Dutch industry needs to reinforce its efforts in energy efficiency. Based on historical achievements between 1989 and 2008, Business as Usual (BaU) scenarios project annual improvement potentials of 0.6–1.8 % p.a. until 2040. Based on literature review, this study estimates that implementing energy saving technologies can accelerate energy efficiency improvements to 2 % p.a. and beyond. Efficient combined heat and power technologies could increase these potentials further. These are beyond the historical achievements and BaU scenario projections. New policies will be required for technology development which ensures continuous energy efficiency improvements. The findings of this paper need to be extended by continuous monitoring and more scenario analyses with improved data.

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Notes

  1. In September 2007, the Dutch government also set national energy and climate goals for all sectors of the economy under the so-called Clean and Efficient (‘Schoon en Zuinig’) programme (VROM 2007). This policy programme aimed to improve economy-wide energy efficiency by at least 2% p.a. However, by October 2010, the programme was abolished.

  2. The capacity utilization rate in year t n is compared with that of year t 1 by assuming that 25 % decrease in capacity utilization rates reduces the EEI by ±7 %. This rule is developed based on Struker and Blok (1995) (steam crackers) and Ramírez et al. (2006b) (milk powder plants). This rule may differ for other processes.

  3. Based on the typical lifetime of 40–50 years old assumed in modelling studies, e.g. Worrell and Biermans (2005).

  4. For refineries, this is indicated by the aggregated Nelson Complexity Index (NCI) of the six refineries in the Netherlands which grows by 1.7% p.a. between 1995 and 2008. NCI increases from 6.2 in 1995 to 7.8 in 2008. Index values for individual refineries range from as low as 3.4 to as high as 8.2 (IPTS/EC 2010). We apply the generalized complexity index for each refining process as provided by Reliance (2011).

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Acknowledgments

This work was funded by Agentschap NL. The empirical part of this research was partly executed at the CEREM at Statistics Netherlands. The views expressed in this report, however, are those of authors. We gratefully acknowledge the valuable discussions with Mr. Laurent Minere and Mr. Christiaan Abeelen (Agentschap NL), Mr. Hans Pouwelse (Statistics Netherlands) and Mr. Lex Roes (Utrecht University).

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  1. Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS, Utrecht, the Netherlands

    Deger Saygin, Ernst Worrell & Martin K. Patel

  2. Unit Policy Studies, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, Westerduinweg 3, 1755 LE, Petten, the Netherlands

    Wouter Wetzels

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  1. Deger Saygin
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Saygin, D., Wetzels, W., Worrell, E. et al. Linking historic developments and future scenarios of industrial energy use in the Netherlands between 1993 and 2040. Energy Efficiency 6, 341–368 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-012-9172-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-012-9172-8

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