Abstract
Objectives
This paper reports on the results of an experiment examining the community impact of collaborative problem solving versus directed patrol hot spots policing approaches relative to standard policing practices. The focus is the impact on community perceptions of police.
Methods
We randomly assigned 71 crime hot spots to receive problem solving, directed patrol, or standard police practices. The data are a panel survey of St Louis County, MO, hot spots residents before the treatment, immediately following treatment, and 6 to 9 months later. Applying mixed effects regression, we assessed the impact on residents’ perceptions of police abuse, procedural justice and trust, police legitimacy, and willingness to cooperate with police.
Results
The residents receiving directed patrol were most impacted, experiencing depleted growth in procedural justice and trust relative to standard practice residents and nonsignificant declines in police legitimacy immediately following the treatment period. However, in both cases, views recover in the long term, after treatment ends. Problem-solving residents did not experience significant backfire effects. There was no increase in perceived police abuse in the hot spots conditions. Both treatment group residents, in the long term, were more willing to cooperate with police.
Conclusions
Though there is strong evidence that hot spots policing is effective in reducing crime, it has been criticized as negatively impacting citizen evaluations of police legitimacy, and leading to heightened perceptions of police abuse. However, our results suggest that there is no long-term harm to public opinion by implementing problem solving or temporarily implementing directed patrol in hot spots.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
Since the survey was conducted with only 52 community residents that were purposely selected for their knowledge about and involvement in the community, they lacked statistical power to examine significant effects and the results are not representative.
The choice to use Part I and Part II incidents and not to focus solely on violent crime or prioritize a specific type of crime was a strong preference by the police agency. The Principal Investigator respected their preference, which appeared motivated by a desire to deal with problems that were common as well as problems that were very serious, thus reflecting a sense of equity. The choice to include a diversity of crime problems became apparent when officers conducting problem solving analyzed the nature of the crime problem. Some hot spots showed a burglary problem, others an assault problem, some primarily had youth problem behaviors, others had primarily narcotics and drug-related incidents, etc. As the nature of the DP or SPP treatment did not depend on the nature of the crime problem and, by design in PS sites, the response would be tailored to the nuanced nature of the specific crime problem, we did not feel that honoring this preference to allow all Part I and Part II offenses would alter our conclusions about how different types of policing in hot spots (SPP, DP, PS) affect residents’ perceptions of police.
We recognized that low response rates as well as attrition were likely among this difficult to reach population (Pashea and Kochel 2016). Statistical power in multilevel models is affected by the number of groups and the number of individuals within groups, as well as the expected variability within and across groups. Scherbaum and Ferreter (2009) found that, with 40 or more groups (hot spots), a medium effect size can be detected at a power level of .8 with as few as 7 subjects per group. In our case, subjects range from 6 to 29, with an average of 14 respondents per hot spot. Optimal Design software suggests that with 20 clusters, and an average of 14 subjects per cluster, we can detect a moderate effect (.5) at a power level of .8.
We did not force hot spots boundaries to align with apartment complex boundaries. In fact, most of the hot spots located within apartment complexes only contained a portion of the complex.
We included the maximum number of identified hot spots, including an unequal number of control sites because we had the resources to conduct the surveys to assess community impact at the 11 additional sites, and including these sites improved statistical power to assess community impact.
All surveys in wave 1 were in-person; a few surveys in waves 2 and 3 were conducted by phone at the request of the respondent.
Like others who have surveyed high crime areas, our response rate is not enviable (e.g., Ferguson and Mindel (2007) had a 33% response rate, Chermak et al. (2001) had a 31% response rate and a 49% cooperation rate, while Hinkle et al. (2013) had a 46.1% cooperation rate). See Pashea and Kochel (2016) for an explication of the difficulties of conducting surveys in high crime areas.
In the case of the model examining cooperation, the inclusion of the demographic factors caused significant model instability. Accordingly, our reported results do not include these co-variates. At the same time, the coefficients gained by including the co-variates and measuring North County as a fixed effect are similar to the ones reported in our analyses.
See Cohen et al. (1999) for a detailed discussion of the value of POMP as a meaningful measurement unit for the social sciences.
Likelihood ratio tests comparing the two-level to the one-level models for each outcome were statistically significant, revealing that the multilevel model was a better fit than a one-level model.
The exception is that, for two outcomes (legitimacy and satisfaction with treatment), we had to model North County as a fixed effect due to insufficient variation to properly model the random effect. Additionally, the address level is excluded from the random effects for three models where it lacked variability and so did not contribute to the model (legitimacy, cooperation, satisfaction during stops). As a sensitivity test, we also re-ran all models with North County as a fixed effect. The coefficients are similar to when we model North County as a random effect, although, as would be expected, the efficiency of the estimates of standard errors decline. Allison (2009: 32–34) reports that standard errors are often larger with fixed effects models than random effects, and that the random effects model will provide more efficient estimates.
This linear mixed effects analysis strategy is commonly used in experimental psychology. Gueorguieva and Krystal (2004), in reviewing the Archives of General Psychiatry in 2001, found that 30% of clinical trials used mixed-effects analysis, for many of the same reasons we do: (1) an interest in individual-level effects, (2) to handle repeat measures, (3) to accommodate missing data, (4) to account for nesting of the sample, and (5) the capacity to be able to add controls. Gueorguieva and Krystal (2004) explain, “Mixed-effects models use all available data, can properly account for correlation between repeated measurements on the same subject, have greater flexibility to model time effects, and can handle missing data more appropriately [e.g., than ANOVA]. Their flexibility makes them the preferred choice for the analysis of repeated-measures data” (p. 310).
Larger increases in time spent within hot spots than were provided in our treatment may be more noticeable and have larger effects. As it is, on average, hot spots that already experienced an average of 2.25 h of officer presence saw an increase of just over 1 h per week. This may provide a limited test.
References
Allison, P. D. (2009). Fixed effects regression models. Thousand Oaks: SAGE.
Blader, S. L., & Tyler, T. R. (2003). A four-component model of procedural justice: defining the meaning of a “fair” process. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 29(6), 747–758.
Bradford, B., Jackson, J., & Stanko, E. A. (2009). Contact and confidence: revisiting the impact of public encounters with the police. Policing and Society, 19(1), 20–46.
Bradford, B., Murphy, K., & Jackson, J. (2014). Officers as mirrors: policing, procedural justice and the (re)production of social identity. British Journal of Criminology, 54(4), 527–550.
Braga, A. A. (2001). The effects of hot spots policing on crime. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 578(1), 104–125.
Braga, A. A. (2005). Hot spots policing and crime prevention: a systematic review of randomized controlled trials. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 1(3), 317–342.
Braga, A. A. (2007). The effects of hot spots policing on crime. Campbell Systematic Reviews, 3(1), 1–36.
Braga, A. A., Papachristos, A. V., & Hureau, D. M. (2014). The effects of hot spots policing on crime: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis. Justice Quarterly, 31(4), 633–663.
Braga, A. A., & Weisburd, D. (2010). Policing problem places: Crime hot spots and effective prevention. New York: Oxford University Press.
Braga, A., & Bond, B. (2009). Community perceptions of police crime prevention efforts: Using interviews in small areas to evaluate crime reduction strategies. In J. Knutsson & N. Tilley (Eds.) Crime prevention studies (vol. 24, pp. 87–119). Monsey, NY: Criminal Justice Press.
Braga, A., Papachristos, A., & Hureau, D. (2012). Hot spots policing effects on crime. Campbell Systematic Reviews, 8(8), 1–96.
Brown, B., & Benedict, W. R. (2002). Perceptions of the police: past findings, methodological issues, conceptual issues and policy implications. Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management, 25(3), 543–580.
Chambliss, W. J. (1994). Policing the ghetto underclass: the politics of law and law enforcement. Social Problems, 41(2), 177–194.
Chermak, S., McGarrell, E. F., & Weiss, A. (2001). Citizens’ perceptions of aggressive traffic enforcement strategies. Justice Quarterly, 18(2), 365–391.
Cohen, P., Cohen, J., Aiken, L. S., & West, S. G. (1999). The problem of units and the circumstance for POMP. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 34(3), 315–346.
Easton, D. (1975). A re-assessment of the concept of political support. British Journal of Political Science, 5(4), 435–457.
Epp, C. R., Maynard-Moody, S., & Haider-Markel, D. P. (2014). Pulled over: How police stops define race and citizenship. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Fagan, J., & Tyler, T. (2004). Policing, order maintenance and legitimacy. In G. Mesko, M. Pagon, & B. Dobovsek (Eds.) Dilemmas of contemporary criminal justice (pp. 91–102). Maribor, Slovenia: Faculty of Criminal Justice, University of Maribor.
Fagan, J., & Tyler, T. R. (2005). Legal socialization of children and adolescents. Social Justice Research, 18(3), 217–241.
Ferguson, K. M., & Mindel, C. H. (2007). Modeling fear of crime in Dallas neighborhoods: a test of social capital theory. Crime and Delinquency, 53(2), 322–349.
Gau, J. M. (2013). Consent searches as a threat to procedural justice and police legitimacy: an analysis of consent requests during traffic stops. Criminal Justice Policy Review, 24(6), 759–777.
Gau, J. M., & Brunson, R. K. (2010). Procedural justice and order maintenance policing: a study of inner-city young men’s perceptions of police legitimacy. Justice Quarterly, 27(2), 255–279.
Gelman, A., & Hill, J. (2007). Data analysis using regression and multilevel/hierarchical models. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Gueorguieva, R., & Krystal, J. H. (2004). Move over ANOVA: progress in analyzing repeated-measures data and its reflection in papers published in the Archives of General Psychiatry. Archives of General Psychiatry, 61(3), 310–317.
Hawdon, J. E., Ryan, J., & Griffin, S. P. (2003). Policing tactics and perceptions of police legitimacy. Police Quarterly, 6(4), 469–491.
Hinds, L., & Murphy, K. (2007). Public satisfaction with police: using procedural justice to improve police legitimacy. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Criminology, 40(1), 27–42.
Hinkle, J. C., & Weisburd, D. (2008). The irony of broken windows policing: a micro-place study of the relationship between disorder, focused police crackdowns and fear of crime. Journal of Criminal Justice, 36(6), 503–512.
Hinkle, J. C., Weisburd, D., Famega, C., & Ready, J. (2013). The problem is not just sample size: the consequences of low base rates in policing experiments in smaller cities. Evaluation Review, 37(3–4), 213–238.
Jackson, J., Bradford, B., Hough, M., Myhill, A., Quinton, P., & Tyler, T. R. (2012). Why do people comply with the law? Legitimacy and the influence of legal institutions. British Journal of Criminology, 52(6), 1051–1071.
Jesilow, P., Meyer, J., & Namazzi, N. (1995). Public attitudes toward the police. American Journal of Police, 14(2), 67–88.
Kochel, T. R. (2011). Constructing hot spots policing: unexamined consequences for disadvantaged populations and for police legitimacy. Criminal Justice Policy Review, 22(3), 350–374.
Kochel, T. R. (2012). Can police legitimacy promote collective efficacy? Justice Quarterly, 29(3), 384–419.
Kochel, T. R., Parks, R., & Mastrofski, S. D. (2013). Examining police effectiveness as a precursor to legitimacy and cooperation with police. Justice Quarterly, 30(5), 895–925.
Kochel, T.R., Burruss, G., & Weisburd, D. (2015). St Louis County Hot Spots in Residential Areas (SCHIRA) Final Report: Assessing the Effects of Hot Spots Policing Strategies on Police Legitimacy, Crime, and Collective Efficacy. Retrieved from http://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1002&context=ccj_reports.
Koper, C. S. (1995). Just enough police presence: reducing crime and disorderly behavior by optimizing patrol time in crime hot spots. Justice Quarterly, 12(4), 649–672.
Koper, C. S. (2014). Assessing the practice of hot spots policing: survey results from a national convenience sample of local police agencies. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 30(2), 123–146.
Koper, C. S., Taylor, B. G., & Woods, D. J. (2013). A randomized test of initial and residual deterrence from directed patrols and use of license plate readers at crime hot spots. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 9(2), 213–244.
Lind, E. A., & Tyler, T. R. (1988). The social psychology of procedural justice. New York: Springer.
McGarrell, E. F., Chermak, S., Weiss, A., & Wilson, J. (2001). Reducing firearms violence through directed police patrol. Criminology & Public Policy, 1(1), 119–148.
Murphy, K., Hinds, L., & Fleming, J. (2008). Encouraging public cooperation and support for police. Policing and Society, 18(2), 136–155.
Pashea, J. J., & Kochel, T. R. (2016). Face-to-face surveys in high crime areas: balancing respondent cooperation and interviewer safety. Journal of Criminal Justice Education, 27(1), 95–120.
Ratcliffe, J. H., Groff, E. R., Sorg, E. T., & Haberman, C. P. (2015). Citizens’ reactions to hot spots policing: impacts on perceptions of crime, disorder, safety and police. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 11, 393–417.
Reisig, M. D., Bratton, J., & Gertz, M. G. (2007). The construct validity and refinement of process-based policing measures. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34(8), 1005–1028.
Reisig, M. D., & Lloyd, C. (2009). Procedural justice, police legitimacy, and helping the police fight crime results from a survey of Jamaican adolescents. Police Quarterly, 12(1), 42–62.
Rosenbaum, D. P. (2006). The limits of hot spots policing. In D. Weisburd & A. Braga (Eds.), Police innovation: Contrasting perspectives (pp. 245–263). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Schmerler, K., Perkins, M., Phillips, S., Rinehart, T., & Townsend, M. (2006). A guide to reducing crime and disorder through problem-solving partnerships. US Department of Justice, Office of Community Oriented Policing Services. Retrieved from http://www.popcenter.org/problems/robbery_taxis/PDFs/cops.pdf.
Scherbaum, C. A., & Ferreter, J. M. (2009). Estimating statistical power and required sample sizes for organizational research using multilevel modeling. Organizational Research Methods, 12(2), 347–367.
Shaw, J. W. (1995). Community policing against guns: public opinion of the Kansas City gun experiment. Justice Quarterly, 12(4), 695–710.
Sherman, L. W., Gartin, P. R., & Buerger, M. E. (1989). Hot spots of predatory crime: routine activities and the criminology of place. Criminology, 27(1), 27–56.
Sherman, L. W., Gottfredson, D., MacKenzie, D., Eck, J., Reuter, P., & Bushway, S. (1997). Preventing crime: What works, what doesn’t, what’s promising. United States Congress prepared for the National Institute of Justice. Retrieved from https://www.ncjrs.gov/works/.
Sherman, L. W., & Rogan, D. P. (1995). Effects of gun seizures on gun violence: “Hot spots” patrol in Kansas City. Justice Quarterly, 12(4), 673–693.
Sherman, L. W., & Weisburd, D. (1995). General deterrent effects of police patrol in crime “hot spots”: a randomized, controlled trial. Justice Quarterly, 12(4), 625–648.
Skogan, W., & Frydl, K. (2004). Fairness and effectiveness in policing: The evidence. Washington: National Academies Press.
Skogan, W. G. (2006). Asymmetry in the impact of encounters with police. Policing and Society, 16(02), 99–126.
Smith, H. J., Tyler, T. R., Huo, Y. J., Ortiz, D. J., & Lind, E. A. (1998). The self-relevant implications of the group-value model: group membership, self-worth, and treatment quality. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 34(5), 470–493.
Sorg, E. T., Haberman, C. P., Ratcliffe, J. H., & Groff, E. R. (2013). Foot patrol in violent crime hot spots: the longitudinal impact of deterrence and posttreatment effects of displacement. Criminology, 51(1), 65–101.
Spelman, W. (1995). Once bitten, then what - cross-sectional and time-course explanations of repeat victimization. British Journal of Criminology, 35(3), 366–383.
St Louis County. (2013). St Louis County, Missouri 2007–2012 Factbook. St Louis County.
Sunshine, J., & Tyler, T. R. (2003). The role of procedural justice and legitimacy in shaping public support for policing. Law & Society Review, 37(3), 513–548.
Taylor, B., Koper, C. S., & Woods, D. J. (2011). A randomized controlled trial of different policing strategies at hot spots of violent crime. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 7(2), 149–181.
Telep, C. W., Mitchell, R. J., & Weisburd, D. (2014). How much time should the police spend at crime hot spots? Answers from a police agency directed randomized field trial in Sacramento, California. Justice Quarterly, 31(5), 905–933.
Telep, C. W., & Weisburd, D. (2014). Hot spots and place-based policing. In Encyclopedia of criminology and criminal justice (pp. 2352–2363). New York: Springer.
Terrill, W., Paoline, E. A. I., & Manning, P. K. (2003). Police culture and coercion. Criminology, 41(4), 1003–1034.
Tso, G. (2016). Police brutality is not invisible. Retrieved from http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/civil-rights/265795-police-brutality-is-not-invisible.
Tyler, T. R. (1990). Why people obey the law. New Haven, CT: Yale Univ. Press.
Tyler, T. R. (2001). Public trust and confidence in legal authorities: what do majority and minority group members want from the law and legal institutions? Behavioral Sciences & the Law, 19(2), 215–235.
Tyler, T. R. (2004). Enhancing police legitimacy. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 593(1), 84–99.
Tyler, T. R., & Huo, Y. J. (2002). Trust in the law: Encouraging public cooperation with the police and courts. New York: Russell Sage.
Tyler, T. R., Schulhofer, S., & Huq, A. Z. (2010). Legitimacy and deterrence effects in counterterrorism policing: a study of Muslim Americans. Law & Society Review, 44(2), 365–402.
Van der Toorn, J., Tyler, T. R., & Jost, J. T. (2011). More than fair: outcome dependence, system justification, and the perceived legitimacy of authority figures. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 47(1), 127–138.
Weisburd, D. (2008). Place-based policing. In Ideas in American policing, No. 9. Washington DC: Police Foundation.
Weisburd, D., & Braga, A. A. (2006). Police innovation: Contrasting perspectives. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Weisburd, D., & Eck, J. E. (2004). What can police do to reduce crime, disorder, and fear? The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 593(1), 42–65.
Weisburd, D., & Green, L. (1995). Policing drug hot spots: the Jersey City drug market analysis experiment. Justice Quarterly, 12(4), 711–735.
Weisburd, D., Hinkle, J. C., Famega, C., & Ready, J. (2011). The possible “backfire” effects of hot spots policing: an experimental assessment of impacts on legitimacy, fear and collective efficacy. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 7(4), 297–320.
Weisburd, D. L., Groff, E. R., & Yang, S. M. (2012). The criminology of place: Street segments and our understanding of the crime problem. New York: Oxford University Press.
Willis, J. J., Mastrofski, S. D., & Kochel, T. R. (2010). The co-implementation of Compstat and community policing. Journal of Criminal Justice, 38(5), 969–980.
Xu, Y., Fiedler, M. L., & Flaming, K. H. (2005). Discovering the impact of community policing: the broken windows thesis, collective efficacy, and citizens’ judgment. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 42(2), 147–186.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Kochel, T.R., Weisburd, D. Assessing community consequences of implementing hot spots policing in residential areas: findings from a randomized field trial. J Exp Criminol 13, 143–170 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-017-9283-5
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-017-9283-5