Abstract
Formal engineering hurricane evacuation studies have not typically considered inland flooding explicitly, though it has been shown repeatedly to be a major cause of damage and loss of life in hurricanes. In addition, coastal flooding and strong winds are often treated in a decoupled manner, so that the correlation between them is not captured. The recently introduced Integrated Scenario-based Evacuation (ISE) computational framework offers one approach to achieving evacuation decision support based on a representation of the hazard that considers coastal flooding, inland flooding, and wind in an integrated manner. Using a case study application of the ISE framework for Hurricane Matthew (2016) approaching the North Carolina coast, we evaluate the influence of including inland flooding on the resulting recommended evacuation plan (where and when official evacuation orders are to be issued) and the plan’s performance in terms of risk reduction and travel time increase. Results provide insight into managing hurricane evacuation with consideration of inland flooding. They suggest that in some cases inland areas should be evacuated just as coastal areas are; the scenarios responsible for and the timing of inland flooding can differ from those for coastal areas; the response to the different hazards should be treated together as a system because they can interact in complex ways; and planning for inland flooding can help reduce risk substantially while not adding much to evacuee travel times because inland evacuees do not have to travel as far to safety.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Afandizadeh S, Jahangiri A, Kalantari N (2013) Identifying the optimal configuration of one-way and two-way streets for contraflow operation during an emergency evacuation. Nat Hazards 69(3):1315–1334. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0359-2
Apivatanagul P, Davidson R, Nozick L (2012) Bi-level optimization for risk-based regional hurricane evacuation planning. Nat Hazards 60:567–588. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-0029-9
Atallah EH, Bosart LF (2003) The extratropical transition and precipitation distribution of Hurricane Floyd (1999). Mon Weather Rev 131(6):1063–1081. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131%3c1063:TETAPD%3e2.0.CO;2
Atallah EH, Bosart LF, Aiyyer RA (2007) Precipitation distribution associated with landfalling tropical cyclones over the eastern United States. Mon Weather Rev 135(6):2185–2206. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3382.1
Avila LA, Stewart SR (2013) Atlantic hurricane season of 2011. Mon Weather Rev 141:2577–2596. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00230.1
Bish DR (2011) Planning for a bus-based evacuation. OR Spectrum 33:629–654. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00291-011-0256-1
Blake ES, Zelinsky DA (2018) Hurricane Harvey (AL092017) 17 August–1 September 2017. National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092017_Harvey.pdf
Blanton B, Dresback K, Colle B, Kolar R, Vergara H, Hong Y, Leonardo N, Davidson R, Nozick L, Wachtendorf T (2018) An integrated scenario ensemble-based framework for hurricane evacuation modeling: Part 2–Hazard modeling. Risk Anal. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13004
Chen X, Zhan FB (2008) Agent-based modelling and simulation of urban evacuation: relative effectiveness of simultaneous and staged evacuation strategies. J Oper Res Soc 59:25–33. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602321
Chiu YC, Zheng H, Villalobos J, Gautam B (2007) Modeling no-notice mass evacuation using a dynamic traffic flow optimization model. IIE Trans 39:83–94. https://doi.org/10.1080/07408170600946473
Chiu YC, Zheng H, Villalobos J, Peacock W, Henk R (2008) Evaluating regional contra-flow and phased evacuation strategies for Texas using a large-scale dynamic traffic assignment simulation and assignment approach. J Homel Secur Emerg Manag 5(1): Article 34. https://doi.org/10.2202/1547-7355.1409
Cova TJ, Johnson JP (2003) A network flow model for lane-based evacuation routing. Transp Res A 37:579–604. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0965-8564(03)00007-7
Czajkowski J, Simmons K, Sutter D (2011) An analysis of coastal and inland fatalities in landfalling US hurricanes. Nat Hazards 59:1513–1531. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9849-x
Czajkowski J, Villarini G, Michel-Kerjan E, Smith JA (2013) Determining tropical cyclone inland flooding loss on a large scale through a new flood peak ratio-based methodology. Environ Res Lett 8:044056. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044056
Davidson R, Nozick L, Wachtendorf T, Blanton B, Colle B, Kolar R, DeYoung S, Dresback K, Yi W, Yang K, Leonardo N (2018) An integrated scenario ensemble-based framework for hurricane evacuation modeling: Part 1—decision support system. Risk Anal. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12990
Dietrich J, Zijlema M, Westerink J, Holthuijsen L, Dawson C, Luettich R, Jensen R, Smith J, Sellig G, Stone G (2011) Modeling hurricane waves and storm surge using integrally coupled, scalable computations. Coast Eng 58(1):45–65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2010.08.001
Elsberry RL (2002) Predicting hurricane landfall precipitation: optimistic and pessimistic views from the symposium on precipitation extremes. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83(9):1333–1344
FEMA (2017) HURREVAC User’s Manual. http://b29b4ca90ed6e8cc2b38-bda0e469385589e4e71d5c43df4e22e8.r24.cf1.rackcdn.com/HURREVAC_Users_Manual_2017.pdf
Georigk M, Grun B (2014) A robust bus evacuation model with delayed scenario information. OR Spectrum 36:923–948. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00291-014-0365-8
Goerigk M, Deghdak K, T’Kindt V (2015) A two-stage robustness approach to evacuation planning with buses. Transp Res B 78:66–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2015.04.008
Gourley J, Flamig Z, Vergara H, Kirstetter P, Clark R, Argyle E, Arthur A, Martinaitis S, Terti G, Erlingis J, Hong Y, Howard K (2017) The Flooded Locations And Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) project: improving the tools for flash flood monitoring and prediction across the United States. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 98(2):361–372. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00247.1
Hamill TM, Bates GT, Whitaker JS, Murray DR, Fiorino M, Galarneau TJ Jr, Lapenta W (2013) NOAA’s second-generation global medium-range ensemble reforecast data set. Bull Am Meteor Soc 94(10):1553–1565. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00014.1
Huibregtse O, Hegyi A, Hoogendoorn S (2011) Robust optimization of evacuation instructions, applied to capacity, hazard pattern, demand, and compliance uncertainty. In: 2011 International conference on networking, sensing and control, Delft, Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICNSC.2011.5874936
Jiang H, Halverson JB, Simpson J, Zipser EJ (2008) Hurricane “rainfall potential” derived from satellite observations aids overland rainfall prediction. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 47(4):944–959. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAMC1619.1
Kimms A, Maassen KC (2011) Optimization and simulation of traffic flows in the case of evacuating urban areas. OR Spectrum 33:571–593. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00291-011-0264-1
Knutson TR, McBride JL, Chan J, Emanuel K, Holland G, Landsea C, Held I, Kossin JP, Srivastava AK, Sugi M (2010) Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nat Geosci 3:157–163. https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO779
Kolen B, Kok M, Helsloot I, Maaskant B (2013) EvacuAid: a probabilistic model to determine the expected loss of life for different mass evacuation strategies during flood threats. Risk Anal 33(7):1312–1333. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01932.x
Konrad CE II, Perry LB (2010) Relationships between tropical cyclones and heavy rainfall in the Carolina region of the USA. Intern J Climatol 30:522–534. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1894
Kulshrestha A, Lou Y, Yin Y (2014) Pick-up locations and bus allocation for transit-based evacuation planning with demand uncertainty. J Adv Transp 48(7):721–733. https://doi.org/10.1002/atr.1221
Kunkel KE, Easterling DR, Kristovich DAR, Gleason B, Stoecker L, Smith R (2010) Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones. Geophys Res Lett 37(24):24706. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045164
Li A, Nozick L, Xu N, Davidson R (2012) Shelter location and transportation planning under hurricane conditions. Transp Res E 48:715–729. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2011.12.004
Li A, Nozick L, Davidson R, Brown N, Jones D, Wolshon B (2013) Approximate solution procedure for dynamic traffic assignment. J Transp Eng 139(8):822–832. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000518
Lim GJ, Rungta M, Baharnemati MR (2015) Reliability analysis of evacuation routes under capacity uncertainty of road links. IIE Trans 47:50–63. https://doi.org/10.1080/0740817X.2014.905736
Lindell MK (2008) EMBLEM2: an empirically based large scale evacuation time estimate model. Transp Res Part A 42:140–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2007.06.014
Lindell MK, Prater CS (2007) A hurricane evacuation management decision support system (EMDSS). Nat Hazards 40:627–634. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-006-9013-1
Liu Y, Chang GL, Liu Y, Lai X (2008) Corridor-based emergency evacuation system for Washington, D.C.: system development and case study. Transp Res Rec J Transp Res Board 2041:58–67. https://doi.org/10.3141/2041-07
Lonfat M, Marks FD Jr, Chen SS (2004) Precipitation distribution in tropical cyclones using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) microwave imager: a global perspective. Mon Weather Rev 132(7):1645–1660. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132%3c1645:PDITCU%3e2.0.CO;2
Luitel B, Villarini G, Vecchi GA (2018) Verification of the skill of numerical weather prediction models in forecasting rainfall from U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones. J Hydrol 556:1026–1037. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.09.019
Marchok T, Rogers R, Tuleya R (2007) Validation schemes for tropical cyclone quantitative precipitation forecasts: evaluation of operational models for U.S. landfalling cases. Weather Forecast 22(4):726–746. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF1024.1
Matyas CJ (2017) Comparing the spatial patterns of rainfall and atmospheric moisture among tropical cyclones having a track similar to Hurricane Irene (2011). Atmosphere 8(9):165. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8090165
Meng Q, Khoo HL (2008) Optimizing contraflow scheduling problem: model and algorithm. J Intell Transp Syst 12(3):126–138. https://doi.org/10.1080/15472450802262349
Murray-Tuite P, Wolshon B (2013) Evacuation transportation modeling: an overview of research, development, and practice. Transp Res C 27:25–45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2012.11.005
National Hurricane Center (NHC) (2017) National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml. Updated April 4, 2017. Accessed 24 April 2018
National Weather Service (NWS) (2012) Service Assessment Hurricane Irene, August 21-30, 2011. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, Silver Spring
National Weather Service (NWS) (2017) Service Assessment October 2016 Hurricane Matthew. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, Silver Spring
NCEI 2018. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events/US/1980-2018
Ng MW, Waller ST (2010) Reliable evacuation planning via demand inflation and supply deflation. Transp Res Part E 46:1086–1094. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2010.04.001
Ng MW, Park J, Waller ST (2010) A hybrid bilevel model for optimal shelter assignment in emergency evacuations. Comput Aided Civ Infrastruct Eng 25:547–556. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8667.2010.00669.x
Oldenborgh GJ, van der Wiel K, Sebastian A, Singh R, Arrighi J, Otto F, Haustein K, Li S, Vecchi G, Cullen H (2017) Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017. Environ Res Lett 12:124009. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa343
Pedrozo-Acuna A, Mejia-Estrada PI, Rodriguez-Rincon JP, Dominguez-Mora R, Gonzalez-Villareal FJ (2014) Flood risk from extreme events in Mexico. In: 11th International conference on hydroinformatics, HIC 2014, New York City, US
Pedrozo-Acuna A, Rodriguez-Rincon JP, Arganis-Juarez M, Dominguez-Mora R, Gonzalez-Villareal FJ (2015) Estimation of probabilistic flood inundation maps for an extreme event: Panuco River, Mexico. J Flood Risk Manag 8(2):177–192. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12067
Rappaport EN (2014) Fatalities in the United States from Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: new data and interpretation. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 95(3):341–346. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00074.1
Regnier ED, MacKenzie CA (2018) Finalist—2017 M&SOM Practice-based research competition—The Hurricane Decision Simulator: A tool for marine forces in New Orleans to practice operations management in advance of a hurricane. Manuf Serv Oper Manag 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2017.0694
Rodriguez-Rincon JP, Brena-Naranjo JA, Pedrozo-Acuna A (2014) Uncertainty propagation in a hydro-meteorological approach: from the cloud to the flood map. In: 11th International conference on hydroinformatics, HIC 2014, New York City, US
Rodriguez-Rincon JP, Pedrozo-Acuna A, Brena-Naranjo JA (2015) Propagation of hydro-meteorological uncertainty in a model cascade framework to inundation prediction. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 19:2981–2998. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2981-2015
Sayyady F, Eksioglu SD (2010) Optimizing the use of public transit system during no-notice evacuation of urban areas. Comput Ind Eng 59(4):488–495. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cie.2010.06.001
Sbayti H, Mahmassani HS (2006) Optimal scheduling of evacuation operations. Transp Res Rec J Transp Res Board 1964:238–246. https://doi.org/10.3141/1964-26
Sebastian T, Lendering K, Kothuis B, Brand N, Jonkman B, van Gelder P, Godfroij M, Kolen B, Comes T, Lhermitte S (2017) Hurricane Harvey Report: a fact-finding effort in the direct aftermath of Hurricane Harvey in the Greater Houston Region. Delft University Publishers, Delft
Sheffi Y, Mahmassani H, Powell WB (1982) A transportation network evacuation model. Transp Res A 16(3):209–218. https://doi.org/10.1016/0191-2607(82)90022-X
Skamarock WC, Klemp JB, Dudhia J, Gill DO, Barker DM, Wang W, Powers JG (2007) A description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 2. Boulder (CO): Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research; 2007 Jan. Report No.: NCAR Tech Notes-468+STR
Stewart SR (2017) Hurricane Matthew (AL142016) 28 September–9 October 2016. National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142016_Matthew.pdf
Tan Q, Huang GH, Wu C, Cai Y, Yan X (2009) Development of an inexact fuzzy robust programming model for integrated evacuation management under uncertainty. J Urban Plan Dev 135(1):39–49. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9488(2009)135:1(39)
Theodoulou G, Wolshon B (2004) Alternative methods to increase the effectiveness of freeway contraflow evacuation. Transp Res Rec J Transp Res Board 1865:48–56. https://doi.org/10.3141/1865-08
Tufekci S, Kisko TM (1991) Regional evacuation modeling system (REMS): a decision support system for emergency area evacuations. Comput Ind Eng 21:89–93. https://doi.org/10.1016/0360-8352(91)90069-I
Tuydes H, Ziliaskopoulos A (2006) Tabu-based heuristic approach for optimization of network evacuation contraflow. Transp Res Rec J Transp Res Board 1964:157–168. https://doi.org/10.3141/1964-17
Vergara H, Kirstetter P, Gourley JJ, Flamig ZL, Hong L, Arthur A, Kolar RL (2016) Estimating a priori kinematic wave model parameters based on regionalization for flash flood forecasting in the Conterminous United States. J Hydrol 541(Part A):421–433. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.06.011
Villarini G, Smith JA, Baeck ML, Marchok T, Vecchi GA (2011) Characterization of rainfall distribution and flooding associated with U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones: analyses of Hurricanes Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne (2004). J Geophys Res 116:D23116. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016175
Villarini G, Goska R, Smith JA, Vecchi GA (2014) North Atlantic tropical cyclones and U.S. flooding. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 95(9):1381–1388. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016175
Walsh KJE, McBride JL, Klotzbach PJ, Balachandran S, Camargo SJ, Holland G, Knutson TR, Kossin JP, Lee T, Sobel A, Sugi M (2016) Tropical cyclones and climate change. WIREs Clim Change 7:65–89. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.371
Wang J, Hong Y, Li L, Gourley JJ, Khan SI, Yilmaz KK, Adler RF, Policelli FS, Habib S, Irwn D, Limaye AS, Korme T, Okello L (2011) The coupled routing and excess storage (CREST) distributed hydrological model. Hydrol Sci J 56(1):84–98. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2010.543087
Wang L, Yang L, Gao Z, Li S, Zhou X (2016) Evacuation planning for disaster responses: a stochastic programming framework. Transp Res C 69:150–172. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2016.05.022
Weaver JC, Feaster TD, Robbins JC (2016) Preliminary peak stage and streamflow data at selected stream-gaging stations in North Carolina and South Carolina for flooding following Hurricane Matthew, October 2016. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2016-1205
Westerink J, Luettich R, Feyen J, Atkinson J, Dawson C, Roberts H, Powell M, Dunion J, Kubatko E, Pourtaheri H (2008) A basin- to channel-scale unstructured grid hurricane storm surge model applied to Southern Louisiana. Mon Weather Rev 136(3):833–864. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR1946.1
Wolshon B, Zhang Z, Parr S, Mitchell B, Pardue J (2015) Agent-based modeling for evacuation traffic analysis in megaregion road networks. Procedia Comput Sci 52:908–913. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2015.05.164
Yang K, Davidson R, Nozick L, Blanton B, Colle B (2017) Scenario-based hazard trees for depicting resolution of hurricane uncertainty over time. Nat Hazards Rev 18(3):04017001-1. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000236
Yao T, Mandala SR, Chung BD (2009) Evacuation transportation planning under uncertainty: a robust optimization approach. Netw Spat Econ 9:171–189. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11067-009-9103-1
Yazici MA, Ozbay K (2007) Impact of probabilistic road capacity constraints on the spatial distribution of hurricane evacuation shelter capacities. Transp Res Rec J Transp Res Board 2022:55–62. https://doi.org/10.3141/2022-07
Yazici MA, Ozbay K (2010) Evacuation network modeling via dynamic traffic assignment with probabilistic demand and capacity constraints. Transp Res Rec J Transp Res Board 2196:11–20. https://doi.org/10.3141/2196-02
Yi W, Nozick L, Davidson R, Blanton B, Colle B (2017) Optimization of the issuance of evacuation orders under evolving hurricane conditions. Transp Res B 95:285–304. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2016.10.008
Yuan F, Han LD, Chin SM, Hwang H (2006) Proposed framework for simultaneous optimization of evacuation traffic destination and route assignment. Transp Res Rec J Transp Res Board 1964:50–58. https://doi.org/10.3141/1964-07
Acknowledgements
The authors thank the National Science Foundation (CMMI-1331269) for financial support of this research. The statements, findings, conclusions are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. This research was also supported in part through the use of Information Technologies (IT) resources at the University of Delaware, specifically the high-performance computing resources.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Yang, K., Davidson, R.A., Vergara, H. et al. Incorporating inland flooding into hurricane evacuation decision support modeling. Nat Hazards 96, 857–878 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03573-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03573-9