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Assessing future risk: quantifying the effects of sea level rise on storm surge risk for the southern shores of Long Island, New York

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A Comment to this article was published on 06 September 2012

A Commentary to this article was published on 12 April 2012

Abstract

Sea level rise threatens to increase the impacts of future storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. However, many coastal hazard mitigation plans do not consider sea level rise when assessing storm surge risk. Here we apply a GIS-based approach to quantify potential changes in storm surge risk due to sea level rise on Long Island, New York. We demonstrate a method for combining hazard exposure and community vulnerability to spatially characterize risk for both present and future sea level conditions using commonly available national data sets. Our results show that sea level rise will likely increase risk in many coastal areas and will potentially create risk where it was not before. We find that even modest and probable sea level rise (.5 m by 2080) vastly increases the numbers of people (47% increase) and property loss (73% increase) impacted by storm surge. In addition, the resulting maps of hazard exposure and community vulnerability provide a clear and useful example of the visual representation of the spatial distribution of the components of risk that can be helpful for developing targeted hazard mitigation and climate change adaptation strategies. Our results suggest that coastal agencies tasked with managing storm surge risk must consider the effects of sea level rise if they are to ensure safe and sustainable coastal communities in the future.

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Acknowledgments

We thank Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR) for the provision of data sets. This work was supported by the David and Lucile Packard Foundation and The Nature Conservancy.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. The Nature Conservancy, Institute Of Marine Sciences, University of California-Santa Cruz, 100 Shaffer Road, Santa Cruz, CA, 95064, USA

    Christine C. Shepard & Michael W. Beck

  2. The Nature Conservancy, 255 Alhambra Circle, Ste 312, Miami, FL, 33134, USA

    Vera N. Agostini

  3. The Nature Conservancy, 1917 1st Ave, Seattle, WA, 98101, USA

    Ben Gilmer

  4. NOAA Coastal Services Center, 2234 South Hobson Ave, Charleston, SC, 29405, USA

    Tashya Allen & William Brooks

  5. Association of State Floodplain Managers, 2809 Fish Hatchery Road, Madison, WI, 53713, USA

    Jeff Stone

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  1. Christine C. Shepard
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  2. Vera N. Agostini
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  3. Ben Gilmer
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  4. Tashya Allen
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  7. Michael W. Beck
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Correspondence to Christine C. Shepard.

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Shepard, C.C., Agostini, V.N., Gilmer, B. et al. Assessing future risk: quantifying the effects of sea level rise on storm surge risk for the southern shores of Long Island, New York. Nat Hazards 60, 727–745 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-0046-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-0046-8

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