Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Adaptation strategies for rice cultivation under climate change in Central Vietnam

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of climate change on winter and summer rice (Oryza sativa) yield and evaluates several adaptation measures to overcome the negative impact of climate change on rice production in the Quang Nam province of Vietnam. Future climate change scenarios for time periods in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s were projected by downscaling the outputs of the General Circulation Model (GCM), Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) A2 and B2 scenarios. The AquaCrop model was used to simulate the impact of future climates on rice yield. The minimum and maximum temperature of the province is projected to increase by 0.35–1.72 °C and 0.93–3.69 °C respectively in future. Similarly, the annual precipitation is expected to increase by 9.75 % in the 2080s. Results show that climate change will reduce rice yield from 1.29 to 23.05 % during the winter season for both scenarios and all time periods, whereas an increase in yield by 2.07 to 6.66 % is expected in the summer season for the 2020s and 2050s; relative to baseline yield. The overall decrease of rice yield in the winter season can be offset, and rice yield in the summer season can be enhanced to potential levels by altering the transplanting dates and by introducing supplementary irrigation. Late transplanting of rice shows an increase of yield by 20–27 % in future. Whereas supplementary irrigation of rice in the winter season shows an increase in yield of up to 42 % in future. Increasing the fertilizer application rate enhances the yield from 0.3 to 29.8 % under future climates. Similarly, changing the number of doses of fertilizer application increased rice yield by 1.8 to 5.1 %, relative to the current practice of single dose application. Shifting to other heat tolerant varieties also increased the rice production. Based on the findings, changing planting dates, supplementary irrigation, proper nutrient management and adopting to new rice cultivars can be beneficial for the adaptation of rice cultivation under climate change scenarios in central Vietnam.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Adejuwon JO (2006) Food crop production in Nigeria. II. Potential effects of climate change. Clim Res 32:229–245

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • APN (2010) Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research 2010 Climate change in Southeast Asia and assessment on Impact, Vulnerability and Adaptation on Rice Production and Water Resource. Project Reference Number: CRP2008-03CMY-Jintrawet

  • Babel MS, Agarwal A, Swain DK, Herath S (2011) Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures for rice cultivation in Northeast Thailand. Clim Res 46:137–146

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Babel MS, Turyatunga E (2014) Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures for maize cultivation in the western Uganda agro-ecological zone. Theor Appl Climatol. doi:10.1007/s00704-014-1097-z

    Google Scholar 

  • Boote KJ (2011) Improving soybean cultivars for adaptation to climate change and climate variability. In: Yadav SS, Redden RJ, Hatfield JL, Lotze-Campen H, Hall AE (eds) Crop adaptation to climate change. Wiley-Blackwell press, Oxford, ch26

    Google Scholar 

  • Bindi M, Olesen J (2000) Agriculture. In: Parry ML (ed) Assessment of potential effect and adaptations for climate change in Europe: the Europe ACACIA Project, Jackson Environment Institute. University of East Angola, Norwich, p 324

    Google Scholar 

  • Bryan E, Deressa TT, Gbetibouo GA, Ringler C (2009) Adaptation to climate change in Ethiopia and South Africa: options and constraints. Environ Sci Policy 12:413–426

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • CICS (2012) SDSM files, Canadian Institute for Climate Studies, <http://www.cccsn.ec.gc.ca/? page = sdsm > Accessed on 3 September 2013

  • Charles A, Bertrand T, Elodie F, Harry H (2013) Analog downscaling of seasonal rainfall forecasts in the Murray Darling basin. Monthly Weather Review, 141, 1099–1117 doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00098.1

  • Chhetri NB, Easterling WE (2010) Adapting to climate change: retrospective analysis of climate technology interaction in the rice-based farming system in Nepal. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 100(5):1156–1176

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dasgupta S, Laplante B, meisner C, Wheeler D, Yan J (2007) The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: A comparative analysis. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4136, Washington DC, USA

  • Dharmarathna WRSS, Herath S, Weerakoon SB (2014) Changing the planting date as a climate change adaptation strategy for rice production in Kurunegala district, Sri Lanka. Sustain Sci 9(1):103–111

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Doorenbos J, Kassam AH (1979) Yield response to water. FAO irrigation and drainage paper no. 33. FAO, Rome, p 193

    Google Scholar 

  • FAO (2010) FAOSTAT Food and Agriculture Organization. <http://faostat.fao.org/site/291/ default.aspx>. Accessed on 7 March 2012

  • Giorgi F, Mearns LO (1991) Approaches to the simulation of regional climate change: a review. Rev Geophys 29:191–216

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gouache D, Bris XL, Bogarda M, Deudone O, Pagéd C, Gatee P (2012) Evaluating agronomic adaptation options to increasing heat stress under climate change during wheat grain filling in France. Euro J Agron 39:62–70

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Greets S, Raes D, Garcia M, Miranda R et al (2009) Simulating yield response of quinoa to water availability with AquaCrop. Agron J 101:498–508

    Google Scholar 

  • Iizumi T, Yokozawa M, Nishimori M (2011) Probabilistic evaluation of climate change impacts on paddy rice productivity in Japan. Climatic Change 107:391–415

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the 4th assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2000) IPCC working group III, 2000. IPCC special report emissions scenarios. Intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Jalota SK, Kaur H, Ray SS, Tripathi R, Vashisht BB, Bal SK (2012) Mitigating future climate change effects by shifting planting dates of crops in rice-wheat cropping system. Reg Environ Change 12:913–922

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kawasaki J, Herath S (2011) Impact assessment of climate change on rice production in Khon Kaen province, Thailand. J Interna Soc Southeast Asian Agric Sci 2:14–28

    Google Scholar 

  • Khoshravesh M, Mostafazadeh-Fard B, Heidarpour M, Kiani AR (2013) AquaCrop model simulation under different irrigation water and nitrogen strategies. Wat Sci Tech 67(1):232–238

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim HY, Ko J, Kang S, Tenhunen J (2013) Impacts of climate change on paddy rice yield in a temperate climate. Glob Change Biol 19:548–562

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lines GS, Pancura M, Lander C (2006) Building climate change scenarios of temperature and precipitation in Atlantic Canada using SDSM. Science Report Series 2005–9, Meteorological Service of Canada, Atlantic Region, Dartmouth N.S. B2Y 2 N6, Canada

  • Luo Y, Jiang Y, Peng S, Cui Y, Khan S, Li Y, Wang W (2013) Hindcasting the effects of climate change on rice yields, irrigation requirements, and water productivity. Paddy Wat Environ. doi:10.1007/s10333-013-0409-8

    Google Scholar 

  • Mainuddin M, Kirby M, Hoanh CT (2011) Adaptation to climate change for food security in the lower Mekong Basin. Food Sec 3(4):433–450

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mainuddin M, Kirby M, Hoanh CT (2013) Impact of climate change on rainfed rice and options for adaptation in the lower Mekong Basin. Nat Hazards 66(2):905–938

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • MONRE (2009) Climate change, sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam. Ministry of Natural resources and environment. Hanoi, Vietnam

    Google Scholar 

  • Moradi R, Koocheki A, Mahallati MN, Mansoori H (2013) Adaptation strategies for maize cultivation under climate change in Iran: irrigation and planting date management. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 18:265–284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meza FJ, Silva D, Vigil H (2008) Climate change impacts on irrigated maize in Mediterranean climates: evaluation of double cropping as an emerging adaptation alternative. Agric Syst 98:21–30

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mishra A, Siderius C, Aberson K, van der Ploeg M, Froebrich J (2013) Short-term rainfall forecasts as a soft adaptation to climate change in irrigation management in North-East India. Agric Water Manag 127:97–106

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nguyen T (2006) Poverty, poverty reduction and poverty dynamics in Vietnam. Background paper for the Chronic Poverty Report 2008–09. Manchester, U.K.: Chronic Poverty Research Centre

  • Nguyen HN, Vu KT, Nguyen XN (2008) Flooding in Mekong River Delta, Vietnam. Human Development Report 2007/2008. Hanoi: United Nations Development Program

  • Poudel S, Kotani K (2013) Climatic impacts on crop yield and its variability in Nepal: do they vary across seasons and altitudes? Climatic Change 116(2):327–355

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Raes D, Steduto P, Hsiao TC, Fereres E (2009) AquaCrop: the FAO crop model to simulate yield response to water: II. Main algorithms and software description. Agron J 101:438–447

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ray DK, Ramankutty N, Mueller ND, West PC, Foley JA (2012) Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation. Nat Commun. doi:10.1038/ncomms2296

    Google Scholar 

  • Rezaei EE, Gaiser T, Siebert S, Ewert F (2013) Adaptation of crop production to climate change by crop substitution. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change. doi:10.1007/s11027-013-9528-1

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig C, Tubiello FN (2007) Adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture: an analysis of potential synergies. Mitig Adapt Stateg Glob Change 12:855–83

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ruosteenoja K, Carter TR, Jylhä K, Tuomenvirta H (2003) Future climate in world regions: an intercomparison of model-based projections for the new IPCC emissions scenarios. The Finnish Environment Institute report, Helsinki

    Google Scholar 

  • Shrestha S, Gyawali B, Bhattarai U (2013) Impacts of climate change on irrigation water requirements for rice-wheat cultivation in Bagmati river Basin, Nepal. J Wat Clim Change 4(4):422–439

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shrestha S, Thin NMM, Deb P (2014) Assessment of climate change impacts on irrigation water requirement and rice yield for Ngamoeyeik Irrigation Project in Myanmar. J Wat Clim Change, In Press

  • Smit B, Skinner MW (2002) Adaptation options in agriculture to climate change: a typology. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 7:85–114

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Soora NK, Aggarwal PK, Saxena R, Rani S, Jain S, Chauhan N (2013) An assessment of regional vulnerability of rice to climate change in India. Clim Chan 118(3–4):683–699

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Steduto P, Hsiao TC, Raes D, Fereres E (2009) AquaCrop—the FAO crop model to simulate yield response to water: 1. concepts and underlying principles. Agron J 101:426–437

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Alexander LV, Allen SK, Bindoff NL, Bréon FM, Church JA, Cubasch U, Emori S, Forster P, Friedlingstein P, Gillett N, Gregory JM, Hartmann DL, Jansen E, Kirtman B, Knutti R, Kumar KK, Lemke P, Marotzke J, Masson-Delmotte V, Meehl GA, Mokhov II, Piao S, Ramaswamy V, Randall D, Rhein M, Rojas M, Sabine C, Shindell D, Talley LD, Vaughan DG, Xie SP (2013) Technical summary. In: Stocker TF, Qin D (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the Fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Tao F, Zhang Z (2010) Adaptation of maize production to climate change in North China Plain: quantify the relative contributions of adaptation options. Eur J Agron 33:103–116

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tao F, Zhang Z, Zhang S, Zhu Z, Shi W (2012) Response of crop yields to climate trends since 1980 in China. Clim Res 54:233–247

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tingem M, Rivington M (2009) Adaptation for crop agriculture to climate change in Cameroon: turning on the heat. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 14:153–168

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vu L, Glewwe P (2008) Impacts of rising food prices on poverty and welfare in Vietnam. Working Paper Series No. 13. Hanoi, Vietnam: Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN)

  • Wassmann R, Dobermann A (2007) Climate change adaptation through rice production ion regions with high poverty levels. J Semi-Arid Tropical Agric Res 4(1). Available from: http://www.icrisat.org/journal/SpecialProject/sp8.pdf Accessed on 11 February 2014

  • Wilby RL, Dawson CW (2007) SDSM 4.2—a decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts, user manual

  • Wassmann R, Jagadish SVK, Sumfleth K, Pathak H, Howell G, Ismail A, Serraj R, Redona E, Singh RK, Heuer S (2009) Regional vulnerability of climate change impacts on Asian rice production and scope for adaptation. Advances in Agronomy, Elsevier, pp 91–133

    Google Scholar 

  • Yang T, Li H, Wang W, Xu CY, Yu Z (2012) Statistical downscaling of extreme daily precipitation, evapotranspiration and temperature and construction of future scenarios. Hydrol Processes 26:3510–3523

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang JC, Zhang JH (2006) Grain filling of cereals under soil drying. New Phytol 169:223–236

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhai, F, Zhuang J (2009) Agricultural impact of climate change: A general equilibrium analysis with special reference to Southeast Asia. Asian Development Bank Institute Working Paper Series 131. Manila, the Philippines: Asian Development Bank

  • Zhang W, Liu W, Xue Q, Chen J, Han X (2013) Evaluation of the AquaCrop model for simulating yield response of winter wheat to water on the Southern Loess Plateau of China. Wat Sci Tech 68(4):821–828

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Engineering and management, Asian Institute of Technology, P. O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani, 12120, Thailand

    Sangam Shrestha, Proloy Deb & Thi Thu Trang Bui

Authors
  1. Sangam Shrestha
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Proloy Deb
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Thi Thu Trang Bui
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Sangam Shrestha.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Shrestha, S., Deb, P. & Bui, T.T.T. Adaptation strategies for rice cultivation under climate change in Central Vietnam. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 21, 15–37 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-014-9567-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-014-9567-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation