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Adolescents’ Future Aspirations and Expectations in the Context of a Shifting Rural Economy

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Abstract

Adolescents’ future aspirations and expectations influence the decisions they make as they transition into adulthood. However, less is known about how specific sociocultural factors interact with the formation of future aspirations and expectations and their association with goal attainment in emerging adulthood. The present study begins to fill this gap by using person-centered analysis with high school students (N = 517; 53% female; 92% white) from a rural county undergoing significant economic transition. Its aim was to identify future orientation profiles based on adolescent-reported future aspirations and expectations for success in both education and career. Four latent profiles were identified and labeled: universally high aspirations and expectations; low college aspirations and expectations; lower aspirations than expectations; and universally low aspirations and expectations. Significant gender differences were found. High school males were less likely to be in the universally high profile and more likely to be in the universally low and low college aspirations and expectations profiles. Future orientation profile placement was associated with differences in adolescent experiences in family, school, and community contexts as well as their work and education status and future residential aspirations in emerging adulthood. The findings inform future research and applied efforts focused on rural youth’s preparation for adult roles, and on retaining rural youth, a necessity for the vitality of rural communities.

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Notes

  1. Analyses were also conducted using Multinomial Logistic Regression and the findings were identical. Authors decided to present the MANCOVA findings because of the ease in interpreting the post hoc comparisons in MANCOVA.

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Acknowledgements

This work relies also on the generous participation of the respondents, teachers, school officials, and the communities involved in the longitudinal study. Special thanks go to our project manager, Dr Eleanor M. Jaffee, and to the UNH graduate and undergraduate student research assistants who have been crucial to the success of this project.

Authors’ Contributions

E.H.S. conceived of the manuscript aims, drafted the manuscript and coordinated all aspects of the paper; J.S. participated in the conceptualization of the paper, drafting sections of the manuscript; C.J.T., K.T.V. and C.J.R. participated in the initial design of the longitudinal study including measure selection and provided feedback on the drafted manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Funding

The research reported in this publication was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under award number 155797 (K.T.V.), the Neil and Louise Tillotson Fund of the New Hampshire Charitable Foundation, and the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of New Hampshire. The content is the sole responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Science Foundation, the New Hampshire Charitable Foundation, and the Carsey School of Public Policy. Funding agencies had no role in the study design; collection, analysis or interpretation of the data; writing the manuscript; or the decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

Dating Sharing and Declaration

The dataset analyzed during the current study are not publicly available but data sharing on reasonable request would be considered by contacting the corresponding author.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Human Development & Family Studies, University of New Hampshire, Pettee Hall, Room 202, 55 College Road, Durham, NH, 03824, USA

    Erin Hiley Sharp & Corinna Jenkins Tucker

  2. Department of Kinesiology, University of New Hampshire, New Hampshire Hall, 124 Main Street, Durham, NH, 03824, USA

    Jayson Seaman

  3. Department of Sociology, University of New Hampshire, McConnell Hall, 15 Academic Way, Durham, NH, 03824, USA

    Karen T. Van Gundy & Cesar J. Rebellon

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Sharp, E.H., Seaman, J., Tucker, C.J. et al. Adolescents’ Future Aspirations and Expectations in the Context of a Shifting Rural Economy. J Youth Adolescence 49, 534–548 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10964-019-01152-6

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