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Dissecting the Prevalence and Incidence of Offending During the Crime Drop of the 1990s

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Abstract

Objectives

To evaluate whether the 1990s crime drop reflects a decrease in offending prevalence (the fraction of the population engaged in crime), offending incidence (the frequency of offending among active criminals), or some combination of the two.

Methods

We use individual-level longitudinal data on adolescent offending patterns from the Pittsburgh Youth study (PYS), integrating information from the youngest and oldest cohorts to compare offending among 17–18 year old males at the beginning and end of the 1990s. Logistic and negative binomial regression models are estimated to assess whether there are significant differences in offending prevalence and incidence during the 1990s.

Results

The reduction in property crime rates in the PYS sample during the 1990s can be attributed to declines in both offending prevalence and incidence. The overall decline in serious violence during the 1990s for the full sample was primarily the result of a falloff in prevalence. However, for black youth our results indicate significant reductions in both the prevalence and incidence of serious violence. We did not detect a significant difference in illegal drug sales during the period.

Conclusions

Using longitudinal data on individuals to decompose aggregate crime trends into changes in the prevalence and incidence of offending offers insights into the nature of the 1990s crime drop that cannot be discerned from aggregate crime data. Future research should build on the current study by examining the specific mechanisms that influence change over time in crime prevalence, incidence, or both.

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Notes

  1. Some scholars have taken partial steps to do so. Elonheimo (2014) uses survey data to document a significant reduction in offending prevalence during the 1990s in two Finnish cities, but does not explore comparable trends in offending incidence.

  2. A drop in prevalence could be especially consequential if it translates into a smaller number of persons who might have gone on to commit crime at very high rates.

  3. An exception may be studies that attribute some fraction of the crime decline to the incapacitation effects of imprisonment, which reduce the frequency of offending by active offenders during the period of imprisonment. Yet, even the most generous estimates of imprisonment effects suggest they explain about a quarter of the crime drop, and those estimates combine the incapacitation effects and deterrent effects of imprisonment. The deterrent effects may reflect reduced offending prevalence, incidence, or both. See Travis et al. (2014) for a recent review of research on the effects of imprisonment on crime rates.

  4. The risk score is a continuous index of 21 items found on four separate behavioral instruments that were administered at the initial screening wave to the caretakers, children, and teachers (Loeber et al. 2008).

  5. Prior research has found no evidence of selective attrition with regard to socioeconomic status, race, and initial risk scores (Loeber et al. 2008).

  6. Fabio et al. (2006) apply the PYS data to assess selected explanations for the overall reduction in crime during the 1990s, but they do not distinguish between offending prevalence and incidence.

  7. We obtained substantively similar results in analyses that use a cutoff of two offenses to distinguish prevalence and incidence.

  8. The initial PYS sample contained a small proportion of youth from other racial and ethnic groups, including Hispanics, Asians, American Indians, and those of mixed race and ethnicity (e.g., black/Asian, black/American Indian). Combined, these groups comprise approximately 3 % of the original sample in each cohort. The dichotomous measure of race used in the current study codes the relatively few Hispanic, American Indian, and mixed youth as black, whereas Asian youth are coded as white.

  9. We estimated the negative binomial regression models of overall crime and offending incidence with and without exposure indicators, with sample size defining exposure. The estimates were quite similar across specifications, and so we report results from the models without the exposure indicator.

  10. The predicted margin for violence frequency is 1.24 for the 1992/1993 period, and .232 for 1998/1999. For the estimates of property crime frequency the margin is 5.03 during the 1992/1993 period and 1.37 in the latter period.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Sociology, University of Iowa, W126 Seashore Hall, Iowa City, IA, 52245, USA

    Mark T. Berg

  2. Department of Sociology and Criminology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA

    Eric Baumer

  3. Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Missouri – St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, USA

    Richard Rosenfeld

  4. Department of Psychiatry and Psychology, Western Psychiatric Institute and Clinics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA

    Rolf Loeber

Authors
  1. Mark T. Berg
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  2. Eric Baumer
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  3. Richard Rosenfeld
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  4. Rolf Loeber
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Mark T. Berg.

Appendix: Item Composition of Dependent Variables

Appendix: Item Composition of Dependent Variables

Property Crime Items

  1. 1.

    In the past year, have you avoided paying for things such as movies, bus or subway rides, food, or computer services?

  2. 2.

    In the past year, have you gone into or tried to go into a building to steal something?

  3. 3.

    In the past year, have you taken something from a store without paying for it?

  4. 4.

    In the past year, have you snatched someone`s purse or wallet or picked someone`s pocket?

  5. 5.

    In the past year, have you taken something from a car that did not belong to you?

Violent Behavior Items

  1. 1.

    In the past year, have you purposely set fire to a house, building, car, or other property or tried to do so?

  2. 2.

    In the past year, have you attacked someone with a weapon or with the idea of seriously hurting or killing them?

  3. 3.

    In the past year, have you used a weapon, force, or strong-arm methods to get money or things from people?

  4. 4.

    In the past year, have you thrown objects such as rocks or bottles at people?

  5. 5.

    In the past year, have you been involved in a gang fight?

  6. 6.

    In the past year, have you physically hurt or threatened to hurt someone to get them to have sex with you?

  7. 7.

    In the past year, have you had or tried to have sexual relations with someone against their will?

Drug Sales Items

  1. 1.

    In the past year, have you sold marijuana or hashish? (pot, grass, hash)?

  2. 2.

    In the past year, have you sold hard drugs such as heroin, PCP, cocaine, or LSD?

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Berg, M.T., Baumer, E., Rosenfeld, R. et al. Dissecting the Prevalence and Incidence of Offending During the Crime Drop of the 1990s. J Quant Criminol 32, 377–396 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-016-9289-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-016-9289-6

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