Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Quantifying storm surge and risk reduction costs: a case study for Lafitte, Louisiana

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Rising sea levels have increased flood risk in coastal communities on both the east and west coasts of the USA. The goal of this analysis is to approximate flood defense costs from cyclonic flooding as a partial means to evaluate the resilience of coastal communities. Storm surge models were previously constructed via an established approach to represent historical and future coastal Louisiana landscapes and associated flood patterns. Coastal flooding was also previously simulated via a suite of 14 hurricanes. Approximate levee heights surrounding Lafitte, Louisiana, are calculated from the surge and wave output of Hurricane Isaac, the predominated hurricane in the Lafitte area for all years examined (NAVD88, m): 1.68 (1930), 2.92 (1970), 3.30 (1990), 4.82 (2010), 5.93 (2030), 6.57 (2050), 7.16 (2070), 7.70 (2090), and 8.22 (2110). Approximate costs per person are also calculated (2010 USD): $49,500 (1930), $41,400 (1970), $37,500 (1990), $181,600 (2010), $223,600 (2030), $247,800 (2050), $269,900 (2070), $290,100 (2090), and $309,800 (2110). The Gulf of Mexico (GOM) migrated 7.4 km inland within the Louisiana Barataria coastal basin between 1973 and 2010. For each person in Lafitte, flood defense costs increased approximately (2010 USD) $19,000 per person per kilometer inland migration of the GOM from 1973 to 2010. The methodology developed in this case study effectively connects wetland loss with increased flood defense costs and can be applied to communities with similar challenges.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Atkinson J, McKee Smith J, Bender C (2012) Sea-level rise effects on storm surge and nearshore waves on the Texas coast: influence of landscape and storm characteristics. J Waterw Port Coast Ocean Eng 139:98–117

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barbier EB (2015) Valuing the storm protection service of estuarine and coastal ecosystems. Ecosyst Serv 11:32–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2014.06.010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barbier EB, Hacker SD, Kennedy C, Koch EW, Stier AC, Silliman BR (2011) The value of estuarine and coastal ecosystem services. Ecol Monogr 81:169–193. https://doi.org/10.1890/10-1510.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barbier EB, Georgiou IY, Enchelmeyer B, Reed DJ (2013) The value of wetlands in protecting southeast louisiana from hurricane storm surges. PLoS One 8:e58715. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0058715

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Batker D, de la Torre I, Costanza R, Swedeen P, Day J, Boumans R, Bagstad K (2010) Gaining ground: wetlands, hurricanes, and the economy: the value of restoring the Mississippi River Delta. Institute for Sustainable Solutions, Earth Economics

  • Berg R (2013) Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Isaac (AL092012) 21 August – 1 September 2012. National Hurricane Center. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092012_Isaac.pdf. Accessed 3/20/2018.

  • Bilskie MV, Hagen SC, Alizad K, Medeiros SC, Passeri DL, Needham HF, Cox A (2016) Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geoomorphic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico. Earth’s Future 4:177–193

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bilskie MV, Hagen SC, Irish JL (2019) Development of Return Period Stillwater Floodplains for the Northern Gulf of Mexico under the Coastal Dynamics of Sea Level Rise. J Waterw Port Coast 145:04019001. https://doi.org/10.1061/(Asce)Ww.1943-5460.0000468

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boesch DF, Josselyn MN, Mehta AJ, Morris JT, Nuttle WK, Simenstad CA, Swift DJ (1994) Scientific assessment of coastal wetland loss, restoration and management in Louisiana J Coast Res:i-103

  • Booij N, Ris RC, Holthuijsen LH (1999) A third-generation wave model for coastal regions-1. Model description and validation. J Geophys Res Oceans 104:7649–7666. https://doi.org/10.1029/98jc02622

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Center for Planning Excellence (2014) Resilient Jean Lafitte. A Flood Emergency Preparedness Plan, Louisiana

    Google Scholar 

  • Church JA et al (2013) Sea level change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (2007) Integrated ecosystem restoration and hurricane protection: Louisiana’s comprehensive master plan for a sustainable coast appendix D: sustainable management and Mississippi River resource availability. CPRA, Baton Rouge

    Google Scholar 

  • Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (2012) Louisiana’s comprehensive master plan for a sustainable coast, Baton Rouge

  • Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (2017) Louisiana's comprehensive master plan for a sustainable coast. CPRA, Baton Rouge

    Google Scholar 

  • Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (2018) Barrier Island status report: fiscal year 2020 annual plan, Baton Rouge

  • Costanza R, Perez-Maqueo O, Martinez ML, Sutton P, Anderson SJ, Mulder K (2008) The value of coastal wetlands for hurricane protection. Ambio 37:241–248

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cox AT, Greenwood JA, Cardone VJ, Swail VR (1995) An interactive objective kinematic analysis system, Alberta

  • Dannenberg AL, Frumkin H, Hess JJ, Ebi KL (2019) Managed retreat as a strategy for climate change adaptation in small communities: public health implications. Clim Chang 153:1–14. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02382-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dietrich JC et al (2011) Modeling hurricane waves and storm surge using integrally-coupled, scalable computations. Coast Eng 58:45–65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2010.08.001

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • EurOtop (2016) Manual on wave overtopping of sea defences and related structures. An overtopping manual largely based on European research, but for worldwide application

  • Filatova T, Mulder JP, van der Veen A (2011) Coastal risk management: how to motivate individual economic decisions to lower flood risk? Ocean Coast Manag 54:164–172

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fischbach JR et al (2017) 2017 coastal master plan modeling: attachment C3–25: storm surge and risk assessment. Final Version. Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority, Baton Rouge

    Google Scholar 

  • Gagliano SM, Kwon HJ, Van Beek JL (1970) Deterioration and restoration of coastal wetlands. Coast Eng Proc 1:1767–1782

    Google Scholar 

  • Irish JL, Sleath A, Cialone MA, Knutson TR, Jensen RE (2013) Simulations of hurricane Katrina (2005) under sea level and climate conditions for 1900. Clim Chang 122:635–649

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jonkman SN, van Gelder PH, Vrijling JK (2003) An overview of quantitative risk measures for loss of life and economic damage. J Hazard Mater 99:1–30

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jonkman SN, Kok M, van Ledden M, Vrijling JK (2009) Risk-based design of flood defence systems: a preliminary analysis of the optimal protection level for the New Orleans metropolitan area. J Flood Risk Manag 2:170–181. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-318X.2009.01036.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kelman, I., Orlowska, J., Upadhyay, H., Stojanov, R., Webersik, C., Simonelli, A.C., Procházka, D. and Němec, D., 2019. Does climate change influence people’s migration decisions in Maldives?. Climatic change, 153(1-2), pp.285-299.

  • Kulp S, Strauss BH (2017) Rapid escalation of coastal flood exposure in US municipalities from sea level rise. Clim Chang 142:477–489. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1963-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • LA SAFE (2019) Our Land and Water: A Regional Approach to Adaptation. https://lasafe.la.gov. Accessed 12/3/2019.

  • Louisiana Coastal Wetlands Conservation and Restoration Task Force (1993) Louisiana coastal wetlands restoration plan: main report and environmental impact statement. Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge

    Google Scholar 

  • Louisiana Recovery Authority (2007)1 Louisiana speaks regional plan: vision and strategies for recovery and growth in South Louisiana. LRA Support Foundation,

  • Luettich Jr. RA, Westerink JJ, Scheffner NW (1992) ADCIRC: an advanced three-dimensional circulation model for shelves, coasts and estuaries vol DRP-92-6. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, ERDC-ITL-K, 3909 Halls Ferry Rd., Vicksburg, MS 39180–6199

  • Morgan JP (1979) Recent geological history of the Timbalier Bay area and adjacent continental shelf, vol 64. Rice Institute: Rice University Studies, Houston

    Google Scholar 

  • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (2018) Tides and Currents. Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/. Accessed 3/4/2018 2018

  • National Research Council (2012) Disaster resilience a national imperative. The National Academies Press, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Needham HF, Keim BD (2012) A storm surge database for the US Gulf Coast. Int J Climatol 32:2108–2123. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2425

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Needham HF, Keim BD (2014) Correlating storm surge heights with tropical cyclone winds at and before landfall. Earth Interact 18:1–26. https://doi.org/10.1175/2013ei000527.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls RJ et al (2007) Coastal systems and low-lying areas. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Powell MD, Houston SH, Amat LR, Morisseau-Leroy N (1998) The HRD real-time hurricane wind analysis system. J Wind Eng Ind Aerodyn 77-8:53–64. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6105(98)00131-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reguero BG, Beck MW, Bresch DN, Calil J, Meliane I (2018) Comparing the cost effectiveness of nature-based and coastal adaptation: a case study from the Gulf Coast of the United States. PLoS One 13:e0192132. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0192132

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rogers JD (2008) Development of the New Orleans flood protection system prior to Hurricane Katrina. J Geotech Geoenviron 134:602–617. https://doi.org/10.1061/(Asce)1090-0241(2008)134:5(602

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sack K, Schwartz J (2018) Our drowning coast: left to Louisiana’s tides, Jean Lafitte fights for time, New Orleans and New York

  • Schleifstein M (2012) Corps puts brakes on Donaldsonville-to-the-Gulf levee project. Advance Publications, New Orleans

    Google Scholar 

  • Siverd CG, Jonkman SN, van der Toorn A, Voorendt MZ, Nillesen AL (2014) Jamaica bay flood risk reduction system conceptual design final report. Delft University of Technology, Delft

    Google Scholar 

  • Siverd CG, Hagen SC, Bilskie MV, Braud DH, Peele RH, Twilley RR (2018) Hydrodynamic storm surge model simplification via application of land to water isopleths in coastal Louisiana. Coast Eng 137:28–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2018.03.006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Siverd CG, Hagen SC, Bilskie MV, Braud DH, Gao S, Peele RH, Twilley RR (2019a) Assessment of the temporal evolution of storm surge across coastal Louisiana. Coast Eng 150:59–78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2019.04.010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Siverd CG, Hagen SC, Bilskie MV, Braud DH, Peele RH, Foster-Martinez MR, Twilley RR (2019b) Coastal Louisiana landscape and storm surge evolution: 1850-2110. Clim Chang:1–24. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02575-7

  • Smith JM, Cialone MA, Wamsley TV, McAlpin TO (2010) Potential impact of sea level rise on coastal surges in southeast Louisiana. Ocean Eng 37:37–47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2009.07.008

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Spalding MD et al (2014) Coastal ecosystems: a critical element of risk reduction. Conserv Lett 7:293–301. https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12074

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sweet WV, Kopp RE, Weaver CP, Obeyesekera J, Horton RM, Thieler ER, Zervas C (2017) Global and regional sea level rise scenarios for the United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring

    Google Scholar 

  • The Town of Jean Lafitte (2018) Flood Mitigation. LeBlanc & Schuster. https://www.townofjeanlafitte.com/flood-mitigation/. Accessed 3/14/2018 2018

  • Twilley RR, Couvillion BR, Hossain I, Kaiser C, Owens AB, Steyer GD, Visser JM (2008) Coastal Louisiana ecosystem assessment and restoration program: the role of ecosystem forecasting in evaluating restoration planning in the Mississippi River Deltaic Plain. Am Fish Soc Symp 64:29–46

    Google Scholar 

  • Twilley RR et al (2016) Co-evolution of wetland landscapes, flooding, and human settlement in the Mississippi River Delta. Plain Sustain Sci 11:711–731. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-016-0374-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2008) Louisiana coastal protection and restoration technical report. USACE, Vicksburg

    Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2009) Louisiana coastal protection and restoration (LACPR) final technical report, New Orleans District

  • U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2013) Final post authorization change report: Morganza to the Gulf of Mexico, Louisiana

  • U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2018a) Greater New Orleans hurricane and storm damage risk reduction system facts and figures, New Orleans

  • U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2018b) National Levee Database. https://levees.sec.usace.army.mil/#/levees/system/4405000556/summary. Accessed 8/16/2018 2018

  • U.S. Census Bureau (2016) Population and Housing Unit Estimates. U.S. Department of Commerce. https://www.census.gov/programssurveys/popest.html. Accessed 3/14/2018.

  • U.S. Census Bureau (2018) Census of Population and Housing. U.S. Department of Commerce,. https://www.census.gov/prod/www/decennial.html. Accessed 9/6/2018 2018

  • U.S. Geological Survey (2018) Feature Detail Report for: Jean Lafitte. https://geonames.usgs.gov/apex/f?p=gnispq:3:0::NO::P3_FID:1669529. Accessed 3/14/2018 2018

  • Van der Toorn A (2010) Cost estimation for a canalized river Rhine (Waal). Delft University of Technology, Delft

    Google Scholar 

  • Varney J (2018) ‘Climate refugees’: gulf coast isle becomes test case with push to relocate residents. The Washington Times, LLC, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Vrijling JK (2001) Probabilistic design of water defense systems in the Netherlands. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 74:337–344. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(01)00082-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vrijling JK et al (2011) Manual hydraulic structures CT3330. Delft University of Technology, Delft

    Google Scholar 

  • Wamsley TV, Cialone MA, Smith JM, Atkinson JH, Rosati JD (2010) The potential of wetlands in reducing storm surge. Ocean Eng 37:59–68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2009.07.018

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wong TE, Bakker AMR, Keller K (2017) Impacts of antarctic fast dynamics on sea-level projections and coastal flood defense. Clim Chang 144:347–364. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2039-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zanolli L (2016) Louisiana’s vanishing island: the climate 'refugees' resettling for $52m. Guardian News & Media Limited, London

  • Zijlema M (2010) Computation of wind-wave spectra in coastal waters with SWAN on unstructured grids. Coast Eng 57:267–277. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2009.10.011

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors thank R. Hampton Peele for his contributions regarding the previously developed storm surge models and Dr. Madeline R. Foster-Martinez for her review and insightful contributions to this work. This work also used High-Performance Computing at Louisiana State University (LSU) and the Louisiana Optical Network Initiative (LONI). The statements and conclusions are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of NSF, Louisiana Sea Grant, LSU, or LONI. This publication also made use of data sets provided by the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) which were originally produced to inform the development of the 2017 Coastal Master Plan.

Funding

This research was supported by the Coastal SEES program of the National Science Foundation (NSF) (EAR-1533979 and EAR-1427389), the Louisiana Sea Grant Laborde Chair, and the Louisiana Geological Survey. This work used the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE), which is supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) grant ACI-1053575.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Louisiana State University, 3255 Patrick F. Taylor, Baton Rouge, LA, 70803, USA

    Christopher G. Siverd & Scott C. Hagen

  2. Center for Coast Resiliency, Louisiana State University, 124C Sea Grant Building, Baton Rouge, LA, 70803, USA

    Scott C. Hagen & Matthew V. Bilskie

  3. Center for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, 340 E. Parker Blvd., Baton Rouge, LA, 70803, USA

    Scott C. Hagen

  4. Coast Studies Institute, Louisiana State University, Howe-Russell Geoscience Complex, Room 331, Baton Rouge, LA, 70803, USA

    Scott C. Hagen, DeWitt H. Braud & Robert R. Twilley

  5. College of Coast and Environment, Louisiana State University, 1002-Q Energy, Coast and Environment Building, Baton Rouge, LA, 70803, USA

    Robert R. Twilley

Authors
  1. Christopher G. Siverd
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Scott C. Hagen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Matthew V. Bilskie
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. DeWitt H. Braud
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Robert R. Twilley
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Christopher G. Siverd.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Siverd, C.G., Hagen, S.C., Bilskie, M.V. et al. Quantifying storm surge and risk reduction costs: a case study for Lafitte, Louisiana. Climatic Change 161, 201–223 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02636-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02636-x

Keywords

Search

Navigation