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An operational forecasting system for physical processes in the Santos-Sao Vicente-Bertioga Estuarine System, Southeast Brazil

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Abstract

We describe the design, implementation, and performance of a fully automated Santos Operational Forecasting System (SOFS), built to monitor and predict short-term (< 3 days) sea surface elevations, currents, temperature, and salinity in the Santos-Sao Vicente-Bertioga Estuarine System (SSVBES). The SSVBES located at 24.0∘S, 46.3∘W is a complex estuarine system with many interconnected channels and two connections with the open sea. The system is prone to storm tides that bring coastal flooding to and interrupt ship traffic through Santos Port. The SOFS hydrodynamic module is based on the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) version POM-rain. The SSVBES model grid is forced by tides, winds, and river runoff and is nested into a coarse-resolution South Brazil Bight (SBB) grid. The SBB grid is forced by winds, density gradients, and the Brazil Current flowing offshore. Within SSVBES, SOFS works in parallel with three real-time observation stations. The model performance was tested against observed data with a best Willmott skill of 0.97 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 13.0 cm for tidal sea level (15.9% of the mean tidal range). For tidal currents, the best skill and RMSE were above 0.99 and 3.9 cm/s (4.3% of the mean tidal current range), respectively. The coupled system was able to simulate seven storm tides with average skill of 0.95 and average RMSE of 17.0 cm. The good agreement with observed data shows the potential use of the designed system to protect both human life and assets.

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Notes

  1. Another way to obtain the storm surge signal is to subtract the predicted tide. However, the obtained time series would still be contaminated by the tidal signal, partially due to the remaining tidal components not considered in the tidal prediction performed with the 7 major constituents in the SSVBES (Section 2.4).

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Acknowledgment

The authors are thankful to REMARSUL project (CAPES, process 88882.158621/2014-01). The authors acknowledge CPTEC for providing the atmospheric fields used in this work. The authors also thank the CMEMS for making available the global ocean data and the ECMWF for the reanalysis data. This study has been conducted using E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information.

Funding

The authors acknowledge financial supports from the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP, process 08/58101-9), the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq, process 310608/2014-7), the University of Sao Paulo through the Research Support Center - Sustainable Ocean (NAP-OceanoS), and the Office of Naval Research Global (ONR-G, process SPOOPS). This study was financed in part by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - Brasil (CAPES) - Finance Code 001.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Oceanographic Institute, University of Sao Paulo, 191 Praça do Oceanográfico, Sao Paulo, SP, 05508-120, Brazil

    Carine G. R. Costa, José Roberto B. Leite, Belmiro M. Castro & Marcelo Dottori

  2. Jupiter Intelligence, 251 West 30th Street, New York, NY, 10001, USA

    Alan F. Blumberg, Nickitas Georgas & Antoni Jordi

Authors
  1. Carine G. R. Costa
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  2. José Roberto B. Leite
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  3. Belmiro M. Castro
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  4. Alan F. Blumberg
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  5. Nickitas Georgas
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  6. Marcelo Dottori
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  7. Antoni Jordi
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Carine G. R. Costa.

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Responsible Editor: Fanghua Xu

This article is part of the Topical Collection on the 10th International Workshop on Modeling the Ocean (IWMO), Santos, Brazil, 25–28 June 2018

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Costa, C.G.R., Leite, J.R.B., Castro, B.M. et al. An operational forecasting system for physical processes in the Santos-Sao Vicente-Bertioga Estuarine System, Southeast Brazil. Ocean Dynamics 70, 257–271 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-019-01314-x

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