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Effects of climate change on species distribution, community structure, and conservation of birds in protected areas in Colombia

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Abstract

Climate change is expected to cause shifts in species distributions worldwide, threatening their viability due to range reductions and altering their representation in protected areas. Biodiversity hotspots might be particularly vulnerable to climate change because they hold large numbers of species with small ranges which could contract even further as species track their optimal habitat. In this study, we assessed the extent to which climate change could cause distribution shifts in threatened and range-restricted birds in Colombia, a megadiverse region that includes the Tropical Andes and Tumbes-Choco-Magdalena hotspots. To evaluate how climate change might influence species in this region, we developed species distribution models using MAXENT. Species are projected to lose on average between 33 and 43 % of their total range under future climate, and up to 18 species may lose their climatically suitable range completely. Species whose suitable climate is projected to disappear occur in mountainous regions, particularly isolated ranges such as the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta. Depending on the representation target considered, between 46 and 96 % of the species evaluated may be adequately represented in protected areas. In the future, the fraction of species potentially adequately represented is projected to decline to 30–95 %. Additional protected areas may help to retain representativeness of protected areas, but monitoring of species projected to have the largest potential declines in range size will be necessary to assess the need of implementing active management strategies to counteract the effects of climate change.

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Acknowledgments

This project was possible because of several bioinformatics initiatives to make Colombian bird data accessible, as well as individual field researchers who shared their observations. We thank Project Biomap staff and museum curators: J. C. Verhelst, D. Arzuza, A. Morales, C. Bohórquez, N. Cleere, S. de la Zerda, L. Rosselli, D. Caro, R. Prys–Jones, J. Stewart, A. Espinal, D. Estepa, and J. V. Rodriguez. W. Naranjo helped with Dataves on behalf of RNOA. D. Caro provided data from Fundación ProAves. A. Castaño, A. Cuervo, A. López, D. Calderón, E. Briceño, F. Quiñonez, G. Chávez, J. Avendaño, J. Ochoa, J.P. López, J. Ruiz, M. Moreno, O. Cortés, P. Flórez, R. Sedano, S. Córdoba, S. Ocampo, T. Donegan, and W. Naranjo contributed unpublished records and/or lent their expertise to evaluate the performance of earlier distribution models. The manuscript benefited from comments by R. Akçakaya, L. Brown, L. Dávalos, A. Etter, J. Knowlton, M. Mark, L. Renjifo, S. Munch and greatly improved thanks to suggestions by two anonymous reviewers. S. Phillips assisted with MAXENT, R. Hijmans with Worldclim, and N. Urbina provided an updated shapefile of protected areas of Colombia. Financial support was provided by NASA grants NNG05GB37 to C.H.G and NNX08AU26H to J.V.T.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, 11794-5245, USA

    Jorge Velásquez-Tibatá & Catherine H. Graham

  2. World Land Trust-US, 2806 P Street, NW, Washington, DC, 20007, USA

    Paul Salaman

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  1. Jorge Velásquez-Tibatá
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Correspondence to Jorge Velásquez-Tibatá.

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10113_2012_329_MOESM1_ESM.xlsx

Appendix 1. Landscape statistics and protection for threatened and range-restricted birds of Colombia under climate change. (XLSX 108 kb)

10113_2012_329_MOESM2_ESM.docx

Appendix 2. Comparison among bioclimatic variables from IPCC’s third and fourth assessment reports for Colombia. (DOCX 1437 kb)

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Appendix 3. General linear model analyses of IUCN category and projected change in range size relationship. (DOCX 45 kb)

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Velásquez-Tibatá, J., Salaman, P. & Graham, C.H. Effects of climate change on species distribution, community structure, and conservation of birds in protected areas in Colombia. Reg Environ Change 13, 235–248 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-012-0329-y

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