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Ecological Forecasting and the Urbanization of Stream Ecosystems: Challenges for Economists, Hydrologists, Geomorphologists, and Ecologists

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Abstract

The quantity and quality of freshwater resources are now being seriously threatened, partly as a result of extensive worldwide changes in land use, and scientists are often called upon by policy makers and managers to predict the ecological consequences that these alterations will have for stream ecosystems. The effects of the urbanization of stream ecosystems in the United States over the next 20 years are of particular concern. To address this issue, we present a multidisciplinary research agenda designed to improve our forecasting of the effects of land-use change on stream ecosystems. Currently, there are gaps in both our knowledge and the data that make it difficult to link the disparate models used by economists, hydrologists, geomorphologists, and ecologists. We identify a number of points that practitioners in each discipline were not comfortable compromising on—for example, by assuming an average condition for a given variable. We provide five instructive examples of the limitations to our ability to forecast the fate of stream and riverine ecosystems one drawn from each modeling step: (a) Accurate economic methods to forecast land-use changes over long periods (such as 20 years) are not available, especially not at spatially explicit scales; (b) geographic data are not always available at the appropriate resolution and are not always organized in categories that are hydrologically, ecologically, or economically meaningful; (c) the relationship between low flows and land use is sometimes hard to establish in anthropogenically affected catchments; (d) bed mobility, suspended sediment load, and channel form—all of which are important for ecological communities in streams—are difficult to predict; and (e) species distributions in rivers are not well documented, and the data that do exist are not always publicly available or have not been sampled at accurate scales, making it difficult to model ecological responses to specified levels of environmental change. Meeting these challenges will require both interdisciplinary cooperation and a reviewed commitment to intradisciplinary research in the fields of economics, geography, quantitative spatial analysis, hydrology, geomorphology, and ecology.

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Acknowledgements

This paper is part of the project on Fresh Water and Environmental Change—The Ecological Consequences of Altered Hydrological Regimes, led by Robert J. Naiman and funded by the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis at the University of California–Santa Barbara. We thank R. J. Naiman, David L. Strayer, and anonymous reviewers for valuable comments on drafts of the manuscript. In addition, Larry E. Band, R. Edward Beighley, Lee Benda, Melanie Bojanowski, Shane Brooks, Scott D. Cooper, Wendy Gordon, Gordon E. Grant, Stan V. Gregory, W. Michael Hanemann, David R. Maidment, Peter B. Moyle, Gilles Pinay, N. LeRoy Poff, and Christina Tague contributed ideas and provided insights during discussions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Landscape Ecology Group, Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, Uminova Science Park, SE-901 87 Umeå, Sweden

    Christer Nilsson

  2. Department of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Mid Sweden University, SE-851 70 Sundsvall, Sweden

    Christer Nilsson

  3. Department of Geology, University of Delaware, Newark, Delaware 19716, USA

    James E. Pizzuto

  4. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA

    Glenn E. Moglen

  5. Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA

    Margaret A. Palmer

  6. Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, 680 North Park Street, Madison, Wisconsin 53706-1492, USA

    Emily H. Stanley

  7. Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA

    Nancy E. Bockstael

  8. National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California–Santa Barbara, 735 State Street, Santa Barbara, California 93101 , USA

    Lisa C. Thompson

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  1. Christer Nilsson
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Correspondence to Christer Nilsson.

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Nilsson, C., Pizzuto, J., Moglen, G. et al. Ecological Forecasting and the Urbanization of Stream Ecosystems: Challenges for Economists, Hydrologists, Geomorphologists, and Ecologists. Ecosystems 6, 659–674 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-002-0217-2

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