Abstract
The intensity, frequency, and duration of heat waves are expected to increase with climate change. In this study, we found a significant difference of public perceived effects of heat waves and trust in government among urban, suburban, and rural districts. Rural residents had a significant higher effect perception than urbanites and also showed stronger willingness to have medical insurance or regular physical examinations. Meanwhile, suburban residents had the lowest trust perception in government among these three districts, which may be due to suburban districts’ unique social structure and complex social issues. Besides, we assessed the relationship between the factor effect and demographic variables. The results showed that urban respondents’ effect perception was significantly related to heat wave experiences. Suburban respondents’ effect perception was significantly related to age, income, and heat wave experiences. And rural respondents’ effect perception was significantly related to income and chronic diseases. Based on our results, much more attention needs to be paid to rural districts. The government should strengthen infrastructure construction such as cooling centers, improve emergency response plans and mechanisms, and increase reserves of emergency supplies in rural districts. Also, targeted risk communication is of the equal importance to aid the policy-makers improving the relationship with the public and regaining the public’s trust and support.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abrahamson V, Wolf J, Lorenzoni I, Fenn B, Kovats S, Wilkinson P, Adger WN, Raine R (2009) Perceptions of heatwave risks to health: interview-based study of older people in London and Norwich, UK. J Public Health 31(1):119–126. https://doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdn102
Akompab DA, Bi P, Williams S, Grant J, Walker IA, Augoustinos M (2013) Heat waves and climate change: applying the health belief model to identify predictors of risk perception and adaptive behaviours in Adelaide, Australia. Int J Environ Res Public Health 10(6):2164–2184. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph10062164
Armas I (2006) Earthquake risk perception in Bucharest. Romania Risk Analysis 26(5):1223–1234. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00810.x
Bai L, Cirendunzhu, Pengcuociren, Dawa, Woodward A, Liu X, Baimaciwang, Dazhen, Sang S, Wan F, Zhou L, Xu J, Li X, Wu H, Yu B, Xiraoruodeng, Liu Q (2013) Rapid warming in Tibet, China: public perception, response and coping resources in urban Lhasa. Environ Health 12(1):71. https://doi.org/10.1186/1476-069X-12-71
Bassil KL, Cole DC (2010) Effectiveness of public health interventions in reducing morbidity and mortality during heat episodes: a structured review. Int J Environ Res Public Health 7(3):991–1001. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph7030991
Benmarhnia T, Deguen S, Kaufman JS, Smargiassi A (2015) Review article: vulnerability to heat-related mortality: a systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression analysis. Epidemiology 26(6):781–793. https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000000375
Bittner MI, Stossel U (2012) Perceptions of heatwave risks to health: results of an qualitative interview study with older people and their carers in Freiburg, Germany. Psycho-social Med 9:Doc05. https://doi.org/10.3205/psm000083
Bouchama A, Dehbi M, Mohamed G, Matthies F, Shoukri M, Menne B (2007) Prognostic factors in heat wave related deaths: a meta-analysis. Arch Intern Med 167(20):2170–2176. https://doi.org/10.1001/archinte.167.20.ira70009
Bronfman NC, Cifuentes LA (2003) Risk perception in a developing country: the case of Chile. Risk Anal 23(6):1271–1285. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2003.00400.x
Chen K, Huang L, Zhou L, Ma ZW, Bi J, Li TT (2015) Spatial analysis of the effect of the 2010 heat wave on stroke mortality in Nanjing, China. Scientific Report 5(1):10816. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep10816
Cheng X, Su H (2010) Effects of climatic temperature stress on cardiovascular diseases. Eur J Intern Med 21(3):164–167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejim.2010.03.001
China (2003) Notice of the general office of the state council on the opinions of the establishment of a new rural cooperative medical system. http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2005-08/12/content_21850.htm. Accessed 1 November 2017
Croitoru A-E, Piticar A, Ciupertea A-F, Roşca CF (2016) Changes in heat waves indices in Romania over the period 1961–2015. Glob Planet Chang 146:109–121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.08.016
Debono R, Vincenti K, Calleja N (2012) Risk communication: climate change as a human-health threat, a survey of public perceptions in Malta. Eur J Pub Health 22(1):144–149. https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckq181
Dhainaut JF, Claessens YE, Ginsburg C, Riou B (2003) Unprecedented heat-related deaths during the 2003 heat wave in Paris: consequences on emergency departments. Crit Care 8(1):1–2. https://doi.org/10.1186/cc2404
Dole R et al (2011) Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave? Geophys Res Lett 38:122–133
Du Z, Mo Y, Li T (2014) Heat wave-related excess mortality assessment in Shanghai, in summer 2013. J Environ Health 31:757–760
Epstein Y, Roberts WO (2011) The pathophysiology of heat stroke: an integrative view of the final common pathway. Scand J Med Sci Sports 21(6):742–748. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0838.2011.01333.x
Gaffen DJ, Ross RJ (1998) Increased summertime heat stress in the US. Nature 396(6711):529–530. https://doi.org/10.1038/25030
Ganguly AR, Steinhaeuser K, Erickson DJ, Branstetter M, Parish ES, Singh N, Drake JB, Buja L (2009) Higher trends but larger uncertainty and geographic variability in 21st century temperature and heat waves. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 106(37):15555–15559. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0904495106
Gosling SN, Lowe JA, McGregor GR, Pelling M, Malamud BD (2009) Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature. Clim Chang 92(3-4):299–341. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9441-x
Harlan SL, Brazel AJ, Prashad L, Stefanov WL, Larsen L (2007) Neighborhood microclimates and vulnerability to heat stress. Soc Sci Med 63:2847–2863
Heckenhahn M MK (2011) Kommunale Strategien der primären Prävention hitzebedingter Gesundheitsschäden Präv Gesundheitsf 6(3):7–191 doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11553-010-0283-9
Huang W, Kan HD, Kovats S (2010) The impact of the 2003 heat wave on mortality in Shanghai, China. Sci Total Environ 408(11):2418–2420. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2010.02.009
IPCC (2013) Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)] Cambridge University press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
Kalkstein AJ, Sheridan SC (2007) The social impacts of the heat-health watch/warning system in Phoenix, Arizona: assessing the perceived risk and response of the public. Int J Biometeorol 52(1):43–55. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-006-0073-4
Karl TR, Trenberth KE (2003) Modern global climate change. Science 302(5651):1719–1723. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1090228
Khare S, Hajat S, Kovats S, Lefevre CE, de Bruin WB, Dessai S, Bone A (2015) Heat protection behaviour in the UK: results of an online survey after the 2013 heatwave. BMC Public Health 15(1):878. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-015-2181-8
Kovats RS, Hajat S (2008) Heat stress and public health: a critical review. Annu Rev Public Health 29(1):41–55. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.publhealth.29.020907.090843
Kunreuther H, Easterling D, Desvousges W, Slovic P (1990) Public attitudes toward siting a high-level nuclear waste repository in Nevada. Risk Anal 10(4):469–484. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1990.tb00533.x
Kunz-Plapp T, Hackenbruch J, Schipper JW (2016) Factors of subjective heat stress of urban citizens in contexts of everyday life. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 16(4):977–994. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-977-2016
Liu JJ, Zheng YF, Wu RJ (2008) Impacts of heat waves disaster on human health and its research method. J Nat Disasters 17:151–156
Liu T, Xu YJ, Zhang YH, Yan QH, Song XL, Xie HY, Luo Y, Rutherford S, Chu C, Lin HL, Ma WJ (2013) Associations between risk perception, spontaneous adaptation behavior to heat waves and heatstroke in Guangdong province, China. BMC Public Health 13(1):913–926. https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-13-913
Marchwinska-Wyrwal E, Teaf CM, Dziubanek G, Hajok I (2012) Risk assessment and risk communication in environmental health in Poland. Eur J Pub Health 22(5):742–744. https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckr109
Meehl GA, Tebaldi C (2004) More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century. Science 305(5686):994–997. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1098704
Michelozzi P, de’ Donato FK, Bargagli AM, D’Ippoliti D, de Sario M, Marino C, Schifano P, Cappai G, Leone M, Kirchmayer U, Ventura M, di Gennaro M, Leonardi M, Oleari F, de Martino A, Perucci CA (2010) Surveillance of summer mortality and preparedness to reduce the health impact of heat waves in Italy. Int J Environ Res Public Health 7(5):2256–2273. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph7052256
Naughton MP, Henderson A, Mirabelli MC, Kaiser R, Wilhelm JL, Kieszak SM, Rubin CH, McGeehin MA (2002) Heat-related mortality during a 1999 heat wave in Chicago. Am J Prev Med 22(4):221–227. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0749-3797(02)00421-X
Nogueria P, Paixao E, Falcao JM (2005) Comportamentos das familias portuguesas em epocas de calor e durante a onda de calor de Agosto de 2003 [in Portuguese]. Vigilancia Epidemiologica 23:3–18
Opitz-Stapleton S, Sabbag L, Hawley K, Tran P, Hoang L, Nguyen PH (2016) Heat index trends and climate change implications for occupational heat exposure in Da Nang, Vietnam. Climate Services 2-3:41–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2016.08.001
Preet R, Nilsson M, Schumann B, Evengard B (2010) The gender perspective in climate change and global health. Glob Health Action 3(1):5720. https://doi.org/10.3402/gha.v3i0.5720
Robine JM, Cheung SLK, Le Roy S, Van Oyen H, Griffiths C, Michel JP, Herrmann FR (2008) Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003. Comptes Rendus Biologies 331(2):171–178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crvi.2007.12.001
Sampson NR, Gronlund CJ, Buxton MA, Catalano L, White-Newsome JL, Conlon KC, O’Neill MS, McCormick S, Parker EA (2013) Staying cool in a changing climate: reaching vulnerable populations during heat events. Glob Environ Chang 23(2):475–484. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.12.011
Semenza JC, Hall DE, Wilson DJ, Bontempo BD, Sailor DJ, George LA (2008) Public perception of climate change voluntary mitigation and barriers to behavior change. Am J Prev Med 35(5):479–487. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.020
Semenza JC, Rubin CH, Falter KH, Selanikio JD, Flanders WD, Howe HL, Wilhelm JL (1996) Heat-related deaths during the July 1995 heat wave in Chicago. N Engl J Med 335(2):84–90. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJM199607113350203
Shahid S (2010) Probable impacts of climate change on public health in Bangladesh. Asia Pac J Public Health 22(3):310–319. https://doi.org/10.1177/1010539509335499
Sheridan SC (2007) A survey of public perception and response to heat warnings across four north American cities: an evaluation of municipal effectiveness. Int J Biometeorol 52(1):3–15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-006-0052-9
Sjöberg L (2004) Local acceptance of a high-level nuclear waste repository. Risk Anal 24(3):737–749. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00472.x
Sjoberg L (2000) Factors in risk perception. Risk Anal 20(1):1–11. https://doi.org/10.1111/0272-4332.00001
Slovic P (1987) Perception of risk. Science 236(4799):280–285. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.3563507
Smoyer-Tomic KE, Rainham DG (2001) Beating the heat: development and evaluation of a Canadian hot weather health-response plan. Environ Health Perspect 109(12):1241–1248. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.011091241
Stott R (2010) Population and climate change: moving toward gender equality is the key. J Public Health 32(2):159–160. https://doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdq040
USCDC (2006) Heat-related deaths-United States, 1999-2003 morbidity and mortality weekly report 55:796-798
Wu J, Zhou Y, Gao Y, Fu JS, Johnson BA, Huang C, Kim YM, Liu Y (2014) Estimation and uncertainty analysis of impacts of future heat waves on mortality in the eastern United States. Environ Health Perspect 122(1):10–16. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306670
Xu C (2013) Nanjing statistical yearbook vol 2013. Nanjing Bureau of Statistics,
Yang HL, Xu YL, Tao SC, Pan J, Liu K, Wu MS (2010) Vulnerability to heat waves and adaptation: a summary. Sci Technol Rev 28:98–102
Zhen Y, Lv K (2006) The innovative research on the geography characteristic of city and countryside intersection and its management mechanism world. Reg Stud 15:54–59
Acknowledgments
We thank Weiliang Bao, Xuwen Chen, Lilin Lin, and Haiyun Wu for questionnaire distribution and fruitful discussions. And we thank for the support of the Chinese Natural Science Foundation 41571475 (http://www.nsfc.gov.cn/, received by LH) and the Special Funding for Environmental Public Welfare Projects 201509053 (http://www.zhb.gov.cn/, received by LH).The work of Y. Liu waspartially supported by the Office of Global Strategy and Initiatives andthe Claus M. Halle Institute for Global Learning at Emory led by Dr.Philip Wainwright through the Emory-NJU Global Partnership Initiative.
Funding
This study was funded by the Chinese Natural Science Foundation 41571475. (http://www.nsfc.gov.cn/, received by LH) and the Special Funding for Environmental Public Welfare Projects 201509053 (http://www.zhb.gov.cn/, received by LH). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. This study was also supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Research involving human participants
The study complies with the current laws of the country. The result of ethical review given by the Ethics Committee of Nanjing University is “approval,” and this process conforms to the requirements of the ethical review.
Informed consent
In order to avoid divulging any private information, informed consent was obtained from all individual participants included in the study.
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Electronic supplementary material
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Huang, L., Yang, Q., Li, J. et al. Risk perception of heat waves and its spatial variation in Nanjing, China. Int J Biometeorol 62, 783–794 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1480-4
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1480-4