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The demographic drivers of local population dynamics in two rare migratory birds

  • Population ecology - Original Paper
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Abstract

The exchange of individuals among populations can have strong effects on the dynamics and persistence of a given population. Yet, estimation of immigration rates remains one of the greatest challenges for animal demographers. Little empirical knowledge exists about the effects of immigration on population dynamics. New integrated population models fitted using Bayesian methods enable simultaneous estimation of fecundity, survival and immigration, as well as the growth rate of a population of interest. We applied this novel analytical framework to the demography of two populations of long-distance migratory birds, hoopoe Upupa epops and wryneck Jynx torquilla, in a study area in south-western Switzerland. During 2002–2010, the hoopoe population increased annually by 11%, while the wryneck population remained fairly stable. Apparent juvenile and adult survival probability was nearly identical in both species, but fecundity and immigration were slightly higher in the hoopoe. Hoopoe population growth rate was strongly correlated with juvenile survival, fecundity and immigration, while that of wrynecks strongly correlated only with immigration. This indicates that demographic components impacting the arrival of new individuals into the populations were more important for their dynamics than demographic components affecting the loss of individuals. The finding that immigration plays a crucial role in the population growth rates of these two rare species emphasizes the need for a broad rather than local perspective for population studies, and the development of wide-scale conservation actions.

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Acknowledgments

We thank M. Bermann, F. Biollaz, Y. Bötsch, C. Bueno, L. Dafond, S. Ehrenbold, K. Falsone, S. Geiser, J. Hellmann, J. Laesser, F. Leippert, M. Mermod, S. Mettaz, P. Mosimann-Kampe, P. Portner, M. Schaad, B. Schmid, A. Sierro, A. Tagmann-Ioset, M. Tschumi, N. Weisshaupt and S. Zingg for assisting with data collection. K. Berthier, S. Braaker, B. Hefti-Gautschi, G. Rigoli, and M. Schweizer helped with the genetic sex determination. H. Schmid provided wryneck occupancy data. S. Baillie, V. Cave, T. Cornulier, A. Lindén, B. Morgan and an anonymous reviewer provided very helpful comments on the manuscript. Ringing and blood sampling were performed under licences of the cantonal (Sion) and federal (Bern) governmental agencies. Financial support was provided by the Swiss National Science Foundation (Grant No. A0-107539 to Michael Schaub).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Division of Conservation Biology, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Bern, Baltzerstrasse 6, 3012, Bern, Switzerland

    Michael Schaub, Thomas S. Reichlin, Fitsum Abadi & Raphaël Arlettaz

  2. Swiss Ornithological Institute, 6204, Sempach, Switzerland

    Michael Schaub, Thomas S. Reichlin, Marc Kéry, Lukas Jenni & Raphaël Arlettaz

  3. Animal Demography Unit, Department of Zoology, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, 7701, South Africa

    Fitsum Abadi

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  1. Michael Schaub
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  2. Thomas S. Reichlin
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  3. Fitsum Abadi
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  4. Marc Kéry
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  5. Lukas Jenni
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  6. Raphaël Arlettaz
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Correspondence to Michael Schaub.

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Communicated by Ola Olsson.

Electronic supplementary material

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442_2011_2070_MOESM1_ESM.doc

Electronic supplementary material: Appendix S1. R and WinBUGS codes including data to fit the integrated population model. Appendix S2. R and WinBUGS codes to fit the dynamic occupancy model for the wryneck population survey. Appendix S3. Model selection result of sex-effects in demographic rates (recapture and apparent survival probabilities) of hoopoes and wrynecks. Table S1. Summary results of modelling survival and recapture probabilities of hoopoes using capture–recapture data from 2002–2010. Table S2. Summary results of modelling survival and recapture probabilities of wrynecks using capture–recapture data from 2002–2008. (DOC 116 kb)

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Schaub, M., Reichlin, T.S., Abadi, F. et al. The demographic drivers of local population dynamics in two rare migratory birds. Oecologia 168, 97–108 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-011-2070-5

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