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Natural decadal sea-level variability in the Indian Ocean: lessons from CMIP models

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Abstract

Indian Ocean decadal sea-level variability is an active research area, with many unresolved questions due to inadequate observational coverage. In this study, we analyse 26 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) pre-industrial simulations and isolate two consistent modes of Indian Ocean variability, which collectively explain about 50% of the total decadal sea-level variance. With opposite sea-level signals in the southwestern and eastern Indian Ocean, the first mode is related to decadal modulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole (DIOD) and equatorial wind-driven dynamics. Though IOD is more independent of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at decadal (r ~ 0.4) than interannual (r ~ 0.6) timescales, the DIOD–ENSO co-variability yields sea-level signals along the west coast of Australia, transmitted from the western Pacific via the Indonesian Throughflow. The second mode encompasses variability in the south Indian Ocean (SIODV), exhibiting a broad monopolar sea-level pattern east of Madagascar. In about half of the models, the SIODV is largely independent from DIOD (and decadal ENSO) and driven by south Indian Ocean wind-stress curl associated with meridional shifts in the Mascarene High (MH). In the other models, the SIODV lags the DIOD about 3 years. In those models, in addition to MH forcing, the DIOD-related alongshore wind stress off the northwest Australian coast triggers Rossby waves that also contribute to the SIODV, further west. The DIOD and MH forcing are mutually independent (r ~ 0.2). The results are broadly consistent with sea-level variations derived from the short altimeter data, despite an underestimation of the Oceanic bridge signals in CMIP models.

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Acknowledgements

The lead author acknowledges the financial assistance and research facilities provided by CSIR-NIO, India and IRD/LOCEAN, France during the initial stages of this study. The lead author duly acknowledges the scholarship provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the financial support of the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation (PAMF) during the second stage of this study. The contents of this paper are solely the liability of the lead author and under no circumstances may be considered as a reflection of the position of the PAMF and/or the IPCC. The lead author also acknowledges the research facilities provided by IITM, Pune. This research was sponsored under the Agence Nationale pour la Recherche (ANR) MORDICUS project ANR-13-SENV-0002. This work was done while ML and TI were visiting scientists at the CSIR-NIO, Goa, under Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) funding. JV also acknowledges IRD support for regular visits to NIO. Authors would also like to thank I. Suresh for his help in LCS and damper experiments set-up. Authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Program’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and the climate modeling groups listed in Table 1 for producing and making their model output available.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, Maharashtra, 401008, India

    A. G. Nidheesh & R. Krishnan

  2. Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, LOCEAN Laboratory, IPSL, Paris, France

    A. G. Nidheesh, Matthieu Lengaigne, Jérôme Vialard & Takeshi Izumo

  3. Indo-French Cell for Water Sciences, IISc-NIO-IITM-IRD Joint International Laboratory, NIO, Goa, India

    Matthieu Lengaigne & Takeshi Izumo

  4. CSIR-National Institute of Oceanography, Goa, India

    A. S. Unnikrishnan

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  1. A. G. Nidheesh
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  2. Matthieu Lengaigne
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  3. Jérôme Vialard
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Nidheesh, A.G., Lengaigne, M., Vialard, J. et al. Natural decadal sea-level variability in the Indian Ocean: lessons from CMIP models. Clim Dyn 53, 5653–5673 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04885-z

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