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Downscaling large-scale NCEP CFS to resolve fine-scale seasonal precipitation and extremes for the crop growing seasons over the southeastern United States

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Abstract

Seasonally predicted precipitation at a resolution of 2.5° was statistically downscaled to a fine spatial scale of ~20 km over the southeastern United States. The downscaling was conducted for spring and summer, when the fine-scale prediction of precipitation is typically very challenging in this region. We obtained the global model precipitation for downscaling from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/Climate Forecast System (NCEP/CFS) retrospective forecasts. Ten member integration data with time-lagged initial conditions centered on mid- or late February each year were used for downscaling, covering the period from 1987 to 2005. The primary techniques involved in downscaling are Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function (CSEOF) analysis, multiple regression, and stochastic time series generation. Trained with observations and CFS data, CSEOF and multiple regression facilitated the identification of the statistical relationship between coarse-scale and fine-scale climate variability, leading to improved prediction of climate at a fine resolution. Downscaled precipitation produced seasonal and annual patterns that closely resemble the fine resolution observations. Prediction of long-term variation within two decades was improved by the downscaling in terms of variance, root mean square error, and correlation. Relative to the coarsely resolved unskillful CFS forecasts, the proposed downscaling drove a significant reduction in wet biases, and correlation increased by 0.1–0.5. Categorical predictability of seasonal precipitation and extremes (frequency of heavy rainfall days), measured with the Heidke skill score (HSS), was also improved by the downscaling. For instance, domain averaged HSS for two category predictability by the downscaling are at least 0.20, while the scores by the CFS are near zero and never exceed 0.1. On the other hand, prediction of the frequency of subseasonal dry spells showed limited improvement over half of the Georgia and Alabama region.

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Acknowledgment

FSU/COAPS receives its base support from the Applied Research Center, funded by NOAA Climate Program Office. We also thank Ms. Meredith Field for her careful proofreading and constructive comments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS), Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, 32306-2840, USA

    Young-Kwon Lim, Steven Cocke, D. W. Shin, Timothy E. LaRow & James J. O’Brien

  2. Department of Geography and Environmental Resources, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL, 62901, USA

    Justin T. Schoof

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  1. Young-Kwon Lim
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  2. Steven Cocke
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  3. D. W. Shin
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  4. Justin T. Schoof
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  5. Timothy E. LaRow
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  6. James J. O’Brien
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Correspondence to Young-Kwon Lim.

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Lim, YK., Cocke, S., Shin, D.W. et al. Downscaling large-scale NCEP CFS to resolve fine-scale seasonal precipitation and extremes for the crop growing seasons over the southeastern United States. Clim Dyn 35, 449–471 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0671-z

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