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Assessing Sediment Yield for Selected Watersheds in the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin Under Future Agricultural Scenarios

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Abstract

In the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin (GLB), corn acreage has been expanding since 2005 in response to high demand for corn as an ethanol feedstock. This study integrated remote sensing-derived products and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) within a geographic information system (GIS) modeling environment to assess the impacts of cropland change on sediment yield within four selected watersheds in the GLB. The SWAT models were calibrated during a 6 year period (2000–2005), and predicted stream flows were validated. The R 2 values were 0.76, 0.80, 0.72, and 0.81 for the St. Joseph River, the St. Mary River, the Peshtigo River, and the Cattaraugus Creek watersheds, respectively. The corresponding E (Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient) values ranged from 0.24 to 0.79. The average annual sediment yields (tons/ha/year) ranged from 0.12 to 4.44 for the baseline (2000 to 2008) condition. Sediment yields were predicted to increase for possible future cropland change scenarios. The first scenario was to convert all “other” agricultural row crop types (i.e., sorghum) to corn fields and switch the current/baseline crop rotation into continuous corn. The average annual sediment yields increased 7–42 % for different watersheds. The second scenario was to further expand the corn planting to hay/pasture fields. The average annual sediment yields increased 33–127 % compared with baseline conditions.

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Acknowledgments

The USEPA funded and partially conducted the research described in this article. Although this work was reviewed by The USEPA and has been approved for publication, it may not necessarily reflect official USEPA policy. Mention of any trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. This research was partially funded by the USEPA’s Global Earth Observation System of Systems program under the Advanced Monitoring Initiative Grant No. 35.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, Virginia Tech, 115 Major Williams Hall, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA

    Yang Shao

  2. National Exposure Research Laboratory, United States Environmental Protection Agency, 109 T.W. Alexander Drive, Research Triangle Park, NC, 27711, USA

    Ross S. Lunetta

  3. Office of Air Quality and Planning Standards, United States Environmental Protection Agency, 109 T.W. Alexander Drive, Research Triangle Park, NC, 27711, USA

    Alexander J. Macpherson

  4. Center for Systems Integration and Sustainability, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48823, USA

    Junyan Luo

  5. Department of Geography, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA

    Guo Chen

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  1. Yang Shao
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Correspondence to Yang Shao.

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Shao, Y., Lunetta, R.S., Macpherson, A.J. et al. Assessing Sediment Yield for Selected Watersheds in the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin Under Future Agricultural Scenarios. Environmental Management 51, 59–69 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-012-9903-9

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