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The war propensity of international systems

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Abstract

The conjecture that international system structure determines war propensity has met with mixed results in past theory in political science. This question is reexamined within the context of a dynamic model of inter-nation hostile behavior. System structure is defined in terms of the degrees of grievance, fear, etc., among nations and also in terms of the qualitative patterns of hostile behavior that are possible. Propensity for war is measured in terms of the likelihood of progress to war within a given class of hostile behaviors. Then the dynamic model is used to analyze in detail and interpret the relationship between system structure and war propensity.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Merriam Laboratory for Analytic Political Research, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 61801, Urbana, Illinois, USA

    Dina A. Zinnes & Robert G. Muncaster

  2. Department of Mathematics and Merriam Laboratory for Analytic Political Research, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 61801, Urbana, Illinois, USA

    Dina A. Zinnes & Robert G. Muncaster

Authors
  1. Dina A. Zinnes
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  2. Robert G. Muncaster
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Additional information

The research reported here is a part of a program supported by the National Science Foundation under grant SES 8400877.

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Zinnes, D.A., Muncaster, R.G. The war propensity of international systems. Synthese 76, 307–331 (1988). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00869594

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