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International Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling, and Prediction

SBP 2013: Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction pp 486–494Cite as

Modeling the Dynamics of Dengue Fever

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Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNISA,volume 7812))

Abstract

Dengue is a major international public health concern that impacts one-third of the world’s population. There are four serotypes of the dengue virus (DENV). Infection with one serotype affords life-long immunity to that serotype but only temporary cross immunity (CI) to other serotypes. The risk of lethal complications is elevated upon re-infection, possibly because of the effect of antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE). In this paper we propose a system dynamics model that captures both host and vector populations, latency, and four dengue serotypes. This model allows one to study both CI and ADE. Modeling the Aedes vector adds complexity, but we consider this to be important because combating the mosquito vector may be the most practical intervention in the absence of an effective vaccine. Our results support the need to model the vector population and ADE to explain the observed epidemiological data.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. IBM Almaden Research Center, San Jose, California, USA

    Kun Hu, Stefan Edlund, Matthew Davis, Judith Douglas & James Kaufman

  2. Federal Institute for Risk Assessment, Biological Safety, Berlin, Germany

    Christian Thoens

  3. Bioengineering and Therapeutic Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA

    Simone Bianco

Authors
  1. Kun Hu
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  2. Christian Thoens
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  3. Simone Bianco
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  4. Stefan Edlund
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  5. Matthew Davis
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  6. Judith Douglas
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  7. James Kaufman
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Applied Physics Laboratory, Research and Exploratory Development Department, Johns Hopkins University, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, 20723, Laurel, MD, USA

    Ariel M. Greenberg  & Nathan D. Bos  & 

  2. Center for Social Complexity, Department of Computational Social Science, Krasnow Institute for Advanced Study, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, 22030, Fairfax, VA, USA

    William G. Kennedy

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Hu, K. et al. (2013). Modeling the Dynamics of Dengue Fever. In: Greenberg, A.M., Kennedy, W.G., Bos, N.D. (eds) Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction. SBP 2013. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 7812. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-37210-0_53

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-37210-0_53

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-37209-4

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-37210-0

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

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