Abstract
We have provided a stark contrast between two approaches to assessing the potential effects of future environmental change. The first approach, the scenario approach, relies on Computer model Outputs, typically from General Circulation Models, to develop a set of scenarios for the future State of the Earth’s environment. This scenario approach usually assumes that weather is the dominant, and sometimes only, forcing factor of concern, and focuses primarily on long-term change at global scales. The vulnerability approach, in contrast, focuses on multiple Stresses at local and regional scales (primarily) and more immediate, shorter-term impacts. There are strengths and weaknesses in both approaches but the scenario approach, which is the most widely used, must Start with vulnerability assessments. Only once we know what are the specific threats to our environment do we need to estimate (using scenarios) whether environmental change is likely (or possibly) large enough to cause these threats to be realised, as well as to have a measure of the uncertainty attached to these scenarios. A vulnerability approach will better prepare the public for variable future weather, abrupt atmospheric shifts in any direction, and other urgent and costly environmental stresses. Table E.7 summarises the differences between the two approaches.
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© 2004 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
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Pielke, R.A., de Guenni, L.B. (2004). Conclusions. In: Kabat, P., et al. Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate. Global Change — The IGBP Series. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-18948-7_45
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-18948-7_45
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
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