Abstract
We attempt a critical assessment of the assumptions, in terms of voting behavior, underlying the Goodman (1953) and the Brown and Payne (1986) models of voting transitions. We argue that the first model is only a slightly simpler version of the second which, however, is fitted in a rather inefficient way. We also provide a critical assessment of the approach inspired by King et al. (1999) which has become popular among Sociologists and Political scientists. An application to the 2009 European and local election in the borough of Perugia is discussed.
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Forcina, A., Marchetti, G.M. (2011). The Brown and Payne Model of Voter Transition Revisited. In: Ingrassia, S., Rocci, R., Vichi, M. (eds) New Perspectives in Statistical Modeling and Data Analysis. Studies in Classification, Data Analysis, and Knowledge Organization. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-11363-5_54
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-11363-5_54
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