Abstract
Auction markets provide centralized procedures for the exposure of purchase and sale orders to all market participants simultaneously. Online auctions have effectively created a large marketplace for participants to bid and sell products and services over the Internet. eBay pioneered the online auction in 1995. As the number of demand for online auction increases, the process of monitoring multiple auction houses, picking which auction to participate in, and making the right bid become a challenging task for the consumers. Hence, knowing the closing price of a given auction would be an advantage since this information will be useful and can be used to ensure a win in a given auction. However, predicting a closing price for an auction is not easy since it is dependent on many factors. This paper reports on a predictor agent that utilises the Grey System Theory to predict the closing price for a given auction. The performance of this predictor agent is compared with another well known technique which is the Artificial Neural Network. The effectiveness of these models is evaluated in a simulated auction environment.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Anthony, P., Deborah, L., Ho, C.M.: Predicting online Auction Closing Price Using Grey System Theory. In: Proceeding of Managing Worldwide Operations & Communications with Information Technology, pp. 709–713. IGI Publishing, Vancouver (2007)
Anthony, P., Jennings, N.R.: Agent for Participating in Multiple Online Auctions. ACM Transaction on Internet Technology 3(3), 1–32 (2003)
Chiang, J.S., Wu, P.L., Chiang, S.D., Chang, T.I., Chang, S.T., Wen, K.L.: Introduction to Grey System Theory. Gao-Li Publication, Taiwan (1998)
Chiou, H.K., Tzeng, G.H., Cheng, C.K., Liu, G.S.: Grey Prediction Model for Forecasting the Planning Material of Equipment Spare Parts in Navy of Taiwan. In: Proceedings of the World Automation Congress IEEE, vol. 17, pp. 315–320. IEEE, Los Alamitos (2004)
Deborah, L., Anthony, P., Ho, C.M.: Evaluating the Accuracy of Grey System Theory Against Time Series in Predicting Online Auction Closing Price. In: Proceedings of 2007 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, pp. 463–470. IEEE, Nanjing (2007)
Deborah, L., Anthony, P., Ho, C.M.: Predictor Agent for Online Auction. In: Proceeding of the The 2nd KES International Symposium on Agent and Multi-Agent Systems: Technologies and Applications, pp. 27–28. Springer, Incheon (2008)
Deng, J., David, K.W.N.: Contrasting Grey System Theory to Probability and Fuzzy. ACM SIGICE Bulletin 20(3), 3–9 (1995)
Deng, J.: Control Problem of Grey System. System Control Letter 1(1), 288–294 (1982)
Klemperer, P.: Auction Theory: A Guide to the Literature. Journal of Economic Surveys 13(3), 227–286 (1999)
Laurene, F.: Fundamentals of Neural Networks (Architectures, Algorithms & Applications). Florida Latitude of Technology (1994)
Li, X.F., Liu, L., Wu, L.H., Zhang, Z.: Predicting The Final Price of Online Auction Items. In: Proceeding of Expert Systems with Application, pp. 542–550. Elsevier, Amsterdam (2006)
Lin, Y., Valencia, J.: Grey Analysis of Colombian Migration. In: Proceedings of 2007 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, pp. 7–12. IEEE, Nanjing (2007)
Lin, Y., Liu, S.: Historical Introduction to Grey Systems Theory. In: Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, The Hague, The Netherlands, vol. 3, pp. 2403–2408 (2004)
Liu, S., Lin, Y.: Grey Information: Theory and Practical Application with 60 Figures. Springer, London (2006)
Taylor, J.W., Buizza, R.: Neural Network Load Forecasting With Weather Ensemble Predictions. Proceeding of IEEE Transaction On Power Systems 17(3), 626–632 (2002)
Wang, W., Hao, Y.H., Du, X.: Application of Grey System GM (1, N) Model to Predicting Spring Flow. In: Proceedings of 2007 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, pp. 448–452. IEEE, Nanjing (2007)
Wolfstetter, E.: Auctions: An Introduction. Journal of Economic Surveys 10, 367–420 (2002)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Lim, D., Anthony, P., Ho, C.M. (2008). Agent for Predicting Online Auction Closing Price in a Simulated Auction Environment. In: Ho, TB., Zhou, ZH. (eds) PRICAI 2008: Trends in Artificial Intelligence. PRICAI 2008. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 5351. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-89197-0_23
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-89197-0_23
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-89196-3
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-89197-0
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)