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On Simulating the Adoption of New Products in Markets with Rational Users and Companies

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Highlights of Practical Applications of Cyber-Physical Multi-Agent Systems (PAAMS 2017)

Part of the book series: Communications in Computer and Information Science ((CCIS,volume 722))

Abstract

We simulate the diffusion of products and technologies using an agent-based model that considers rational users and companies. We simulate two theoretical markets that represent the launching of a digital device and the launching of a digital platform. We find that consumers’ heterogeneity and information spread are key in determining prices and the adoption of technologies/products. We find highly differentiated markets reach lower adoption levels. Also, when companies cooperate in spreading information, markets reach higher adoption levels. Lastly, we find that highly differentiated markets are prone to failure.

G. Leon—This work has been supported by the Project H2020 FI-WARE, particularly by the Joint Research Unit between the Technical University of Madrid (UPM) and Telefonica R&D.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Agents know that their actions will change the decisions of other agents, and the decisions of those agents will affect them and so on. Agents can perfectly forecast the consequences of their decisions.

  2. 2.

    The code can be downloaded at: https://goo.gl/abKujU

  3. 3.

    The number of users and developers is arbitrarily selected, other numbers can be considered and conclusions will not change. The link-probabiliy of 1% is chosen because it is small enough to avoid a full-connected network and to guarantee the presence of no-connected nodes. We choose 5% of innovators because it is a common assumption throughout the diffusion of innovation literature. Lastly, we chose 14% of probability of infection arbitrarily, other probabilities can be considered too, but the main conclusions of this work will not change because it only affects the speed of diffusion.

  4. 4.

    We will not consider the case in which information about the technology spreads in the network independently of consumption because it does not provide additional insights.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Campus de Montegancedo, Madrid, Spain

    Juan Manuel Sanchez-Cartas & Gonzalo Leon

Authors
  1. Juan Manuel Sanchez-Cartas
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  2. Gonzalo Leon
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Juan Manuel Sanchez-Cartas .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Departamento de Inteligencia Artificial, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain

    Javier Bajo

  2. Polytechnic Institute of Porto, Porto, Portugal

    Zita Vale

  3. University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark

    Kasper Hallenborg

  4. University of Porto, Porto, Portugal

    Ana Paula Rocha

  5. Lille University of Science and Technology, Lille, France

    Philippe Mathieu

  6. Poznan University of Technology, Poznan, Poland

    Pawel Pawlewski

  7. Polytechnic University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain

    Elena Del Val

  8. University of Minho, Braga, Portugal

    Paulo Novais

  9. National Laboratory of Energy and Geology, Lisbon, Portugal

    Fernando Lopes

  10. National University of Colombia, Manizales, Caldas, Colombia

    Nestor D. Duque MĂ©ndez

  11. Polytechnic University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain

    Vicente Julián

  12. Malmö University, Malmo, Sweden

    Johan Holmgren

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Sanchez-Cartas, J.M., Leon, G. (2017). On Simulating the Adoption of New Products in Markets with Rational Users and Companies. In: Bajo, J., et al. Highlights of Practical Applications of Cyber-Physical Multi-Agent Systems. PAAMS 2017. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 722. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-60285-1_7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-60285-1_7

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-60284-4

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-60285-1

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