Abstract
The third phase of the National AIDS Control Programme in India (NACP III) was launched in July 2007. To help the planning team set appropriate targets, we were asked to predict the number of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) under different intervention protocols. Using a dynamical systems approach to model the time evolution of disease, we predicted that if \(50\,\%\) of the targets in NACP III were reached, then there would be 2.08 million PLHIV by 2011. This prediction was published in 2009 and compared very well with the 2.089 million PLHIV estimated by the Indian government at the end of 2011. This success of mathematical modelling encouraged the Indian government to integrate mathematical modelling into their decision making process.
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Abbreviations
- AIDS:
-
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome,
- ART:
-
Anti-Retroviral Therapy,
- HIV:
-
Human Immunodeficiency Virus,
- NACO:
-
National AIDS Control Organization,
- NACP:
-
National AIDS Control Programme,
- ODE:
-
Ordinary Differential Equation,
- PLHIV:
-
People Living with HIV/AIDS.
References
Anderson, R.M., May, R.M.: Infectious diseases of humans: dynamics and control. Oxford University Press, Oxford (1991)
NACO: http://www.naco.nico.in (2007): India HIV estimates-2009, Technical Report, http://naco.gov.in/upload/surveillance/reports%20&%20publication/technical%20report%20india%20hiv%20estimates%202010.pdf (2010), India HIV Estimates-2012, Technical Report, www.naco.gov.in/upload/surveillance/reports%20&%20publication/technical%20report%20-%20india%20hiv%20estimates%202012.pdf (2012)
Rao, Srinivasa: A.S.R., Thomas, K., Sudhakar, K., Maini, P.K.: HIV/AIDS epidemic in india and predicting the impact of the national response: mathematical modeling and analysis. Math. Biosci. Eng. 6(4), 779–813 (2009)
Srinivasa Rao, A.S.R., Thomas, K., Sudhakar, K., Charles, B., Vishwanathan, A., Saravanan, R.M., Bhat, R., Maini, P.K.: District level mathematical modeling of HIV/AIDS epidemic in Tamil Nadu. (report) (2011). http://www.s2shareproject.org/repository/strategic information/assessment s/district/level/modelling.pdf
Rao, Srinivasa: A.S.R., Thomas, K., Sudhakar, K., Bhat, R.: Improvement in survival of people living with HIV/AIDS andrequirement for 1st- and 2nd-line ART in india: a mathematical model. Not. Am. Math. Soc. 59(4), 560–562 (2012)
Acknowledgments
We thank our co-authors on the paper [3], Dr. K. Sudhakar, Member of the National AIDS Programme Planning Team and Senior Advisor HIV/AIDS, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, New Delhi, India and Dr K. Thomas, Member of the National AIDS Control Policy III Team and Christian Medical College, Vellore, India for giving us the opportunity to collaborate with them to develop model-based AIDS policies (In 2002, Rao and Sudhakar were part of a larger team gathered by The World Bank to model costs and consequences of HIV/AIDS treatment policies in India). During the research for [3], PKM was partially supported by a Royal Society-Wolfson Research Merit Award and ASRSR was a permanent faculty member at the Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata when he was contributing to the NACP III and NACP IV program planning. He spent about a year at the University of Oxford during 2005–2006 to collaborate with PKM. This collaboration was initiated by funding from the London Mathematical Society.
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Srinivasa Rao, A.S.R., Maini, P.K. (2016). Influencing HIV/AIDS Policy in India Through Mathematical Modelling. In: Aston, P., Mulholland, A., Tant, K. (eds) UK Success Stories in Industrial Mathematics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-25454-8_33
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