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Extremes and Decadal Variations in the Baltic Sea Wave Conditions

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Extreme Ocean Waves

Abstract

Average and extreme wave conditions, their seasonal cycle and decadal variations, and extreme wave storms in Baltic Sea Proper and in the largest sub-basins of this sea are studied based on long-term time instrumentally measured time series of wave properties at Almagrundet and the Darss Sill, visual wave observations from several coastal sites of the eastern Baltic Sea, wave statistics from the northern Baltic Proper and Gulf of Finland, long-term reconstructions of the wave climate and numerical modelling of an extreme wave storm. The wave climate is highly intermittent and occasionally contains very strong wave storms. Significant wave heights \(H_S \ge 4\) m occur with a probability of about 1 % among all wave fields in the open Baltic Proper. Extreme wave conditions with \(H_S \ge 7\) m occur approximately twice in a decade. The overall recorded maximum \(H_S \) is 8.2 m. The estimated maximum of \(H_S \) was about 9.5 m in cyclone Gudrun in January 2005. No clear trend exists in the wave properties in the Baltic Sea. The 99 %-iles of the significant wave height exhibit a complicated spatial pattern of changes and have significantly decreased between the islands of Öland and Gotland and to the south of these islands.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    The Almagrundet data set from 1993–2003 contains several contradicting extreme wave records. A severe storm in March 1997 that affected nearly the whole Baltic Proper caused \(H_{1/3} =7.83\) m. As \(H_S \) estimated from the wave spectrum was 5.7 m and the highest single wave reached 10.24 m, this value of \(H_{1/3} \) evidently overestimates the wave conditions. An extremely high single wave (12.79 m) was recorded on 25 December 1996 when \(H_{1/3} =6.37\) m but the significant wave height, estimated from the wave spectrum, was only 3.8 m. The listed values are apparently doubtful although they do represent quite severe wave fields (Broman et al. 2006), and the value of \(H_{1/3} \) in December 1996 is consistent with the data from the waverider in the northern Baltic Proper. More reliable are the data from 1978–1995. The wave height reached \(H_{1/3} =6.9\) m in a relatively short but violent storm in August 1989 and \(H_{1/3} =6.73\) m in another severe storm on 30 January 1988. The significant wave height on the open sea apparently exceeded 7 m during these events. No reliable data are available for a severe storm in January 1993.

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Acknowledgments

The underlying research was supported by institutional financing IUT33-3 of the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research, grant 9125 by the Estonian Science Foundation and through support of the ERDF to the Centre of Excellence in Non-linear Studies CENS.

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Soomere, T. (2016). Extremes and Decadal Variations in the Baltic Sea Wave Conditions. In: Pelinovsky, E., Kharif, C. (eds) Extreme Ocean Waves. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-21575-4_7

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