Abstract
This chapter analyzes the process of global population aging, which has a significant impact on all areas of public life in the twenty-first century. Already today, in almost two dozen countries of the world, 20% of the population is over 65 years old. According to the WHO, the 60+ age group in the world already exceeds the number of children under 5 years of age. At the same time, by 2050 the number of 65+ will exceed the number of adolescents and young people aged 15–24. The influence of the population aging process on various areas of social activity will be determined by its scale and depth, i.e. by the possible demographic structure of the future society. At the same time, the ability of modern society to cope with increasing risks associated with this process is problematic. Among the risks and problems associated with population aging, one finds economic slowdowns, pension crisis, problems of care for the growing numbers of disabled and frail people, maintaining the financial savings of the elderly, the issue of ageism, and the vulnerability of the elderly during periods of crisis and pandemics and consequently maintaining life expectancy as well as a stable democracy and even world order. These risks and problems are of particular concern given that by the mid-twenty-first century, two-thirds of people over 65 will live in middle and low-income countries. Moreover, aging will affect even the currently poorest countries in sub-Saharan Africa with young populations. In view of this, the problem of social security and health care for the elderly is becoming increasingly acute and requires the adoption of proactive measures. The problem of population aging is given insufficient attention by such international organizations as the UN and WHO; in general, studies of this issue are limited in the public sphere as well as in scientific discourse. However, even now the, global aging is an extremely important problem and, we suppose, it will become the most crucial problem in the future. So, insufficient attention to it is threatening societal tensions, crisis, and intergenerational conflicts as well as political and social instability. In the present chapter, we approach this process from the point of view of the transition from perceiving it as a problem to considering it as providing new opportunities associated with the presence of worldly wisdom and experience in a more mature and older generation. Today, concrete measures must be taken in different spheres, and special long-term programs must be adopted to create a higher health-related quality of life (HRQoL) for the older generation and to combat the widespread stereotype of the end of life and the feeling of doom. Grinin et al. point out the importance of technologies, the development of which can be stimulated precisely by the process of global aging and the need to increase life expectancy. As a background for the forthcoming technological wave (which we denote as the Cybernetic Revolution), global aging may create an acute demand for labor-saving technologies, as well as give a powerful impulse in the field of medicine. Progress in the latter will help to extend the working age and improve health-related (biological) quality of life.
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Notes
- 1.
Although, of course, there is a lot of research on various aspects of the aging process and its impact on society, especially on the economy (about this phenomenon see, e.g., Clark & Spengler, 1980; Lee et al., 1988; Bös & Weizsäcker, 1989; Peterson, 1999; Fukuyama, 2002; Jackson et al., 2008, 2013; Lee et al., 2010; Lee & Mason, 2011; UNFPA, 2012; UN Population Division, 2013, 2020; Popova & Yanik, 2014; Goldstone, 2015; Goldstone et al., 2015; Orlická, 2015; Bloom & Luca, 2016; Maestas et al., 2016; Zimmer, 2016; van Dullemen, 2017; Bengston, 2018; Fichtner, 2018; Randers et al., 2018; Yaşar & Yaşar, 2018; Barsukov, 2019; Hsu & Lo, 2019; Kapelyushnikov, 2019a, 2019b; Shcherbakova, 2019; Mitchell & Walker, 2020; Jackson, 2021; Medici, 2021). Here we try to explore global aging as an integral problem of the future (Grinin & Korotayev, 2015, 2016; Grinin et al., 2016; Grinin et al., 2017, 2020); in fact, there is a huge horizon of work here, since the phenomenon permeates the entire society and affects all processes in it.
- 2.
About it see chapter “Technology. Limitless Possibilities and Effective Control” (Grinin & Grinin, 2023b).
- 3.
- 4.
- 5.
An even higher percentage (16.6%) is found in Monaco (UN Population Division, 2022a), but this is, of course, a very special country.
- 6.
- 7.
The proportion of the population over the age of 60 has already reached 36% in Japan (UN Population Division, 2022a, 2022b; cp. WHO, 2021b). It is significant that this was forecasted quite a long time ago, at least as early as in 2008 (Jackson et al., 2008). But the trend has not changed, the recent forecasts confirm it. We are afraid that the prediction of the same authors that by 2050 the proportion of older people in Japanese society will reach 40% may also come true (Jackson et al., 2008); in fact, according to the most recent UN medium projection, in Japan in 2050 this share will be 44%, whereas, according to their lowest fertility projection, it will be even 47% (UN Population Division, 2022a, 2022b). And, according to one of IHME’s forecasts (see above), this share may already reach 40% by 2090 even at the global level (Vollset et al., 2020).
- 8.
For some of these changes see chapter “Socio-Political Transformations. A Difficult Path to Cybernetic Society” (Grinin et al., 2023d, this volume) and chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Global Phase Transitions” (Malkov et al., 2023, this volume). See also chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Modern Society and a Look into the Global Futures: Cybernetic W-Society” (Akaev et al., 2023, this volume).
- 9.
In this regard, the report of Giarini & Leidtke (1996) is quite noteworthy, as it analyzes employment options for both those who cannot find work for one reason or another, and for people over 60 years of age. Both categories are offered jobs that match their capabilities, i.e. maximally simplified, but captivating and entertaining, while giving them the opportunity to earn money to meet their basic needs.
- 10.
According to some reports, labor productivity is declining due to the population aging. Maestas et al. (2016) found out that with an increase in the share of older workers in the number of employed by 10 percentage points, labor productivity declines in all age groups by an average of 3–5%. The reasons for this are not entirely clear. Maestas et al. (2016) believe that this may be due to the earlier exit of the most productive workers from the labor market (Kapelyushnikov, 2019b: 29). But, perhaps, the general increase in conservatism affects younger groups as well.
- 11.
We will touch these aspects in chapter “Socio-Political Transformations. A Difficult Path to Cybernetic Society” (Grinin et al., 2023d), chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Global Phase Transitions” (Malkov et al., 2023), and chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Modern Society and a Look into the Global Futures: Cybernetic W-Society” (Akaev et al., 2023, this volume).
- 12.
See chapter “Technology. Limitless Possibilities and Effective Control” (Grinin & Grinin, 2023b) for details.
- 13.
The global aging is associated with increasing life expectancy. And in order to extend the lifespan, the development of medical and other technologies is necessary: the better the medicine (that is, technologies) is developed, the longer people live. If advancement in this field stops, then the life expectancy will stop growing as well or will even decrease so that the global aging will slow down, and may reverse in older societies, as it was in Russia in the 1990s, when life expectancy in this country significantly decreased (see, e.g., Korotayev & Khaltourina, 2008).
- 14.
On optimum scenarios for this in economic, social, demographic, and political dimensions see also chapter “Economics. Optimizing Growth” (Grinin et al., 2023c, this volume), chapter “Demography. Toward Optimization of Demographic Processes” (Korotayev et al., 2023), chapter “High Income and Low Income Countries. Toward a Common Goal at Different Speeds” (Grinin et al., 2023b, this volume), chapter “Future Political Change. Toward a More Efficient World Order” (Grinin et al., 2023a, this volume), and chapter “Africa—the Continent of the Future. Challenges and Opportunities” (Grinin & Korotayev, 2023, this volume).
- 15.
See chapter “Technology. Limitless Possibilities and Effective Control” (Grinin & Grinin, 2023b).
- 16.
Chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Global Phase Transitions” (Malkov et al., 2023).
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Grinin, L., Grinin, A., Korotayev, A. (2023). Global Aging: An Integral Problem of the Future. How to Turn a Problem into a Development Driver?. In: Sadovnichy, V., Akaev, A., Ilyin, I., Malkov, S., Grinin, L., Korotayev, A. (eds) Reconsidering the Limits to Growth. World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7_7
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