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Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics: Africa’s Futures

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Reconsidering the Limits to Growth

Part of the book series: World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures ((WSEGF))

Abstract

This chapter presents forecasts for the emergence of large-scale political and demographic collapses and for the economic growth of some countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where the likelihood of armed civil conflicts and population impoverishment is the highest in the coming decades. Korotayev et al. apply several advanced mathematical models: (1) to forecast the risks of armed conflict, where population, median age, and education are the main explanatory factors; and (2) to forecast economic growth, which is a function of the same variables and risks of large-scale armed civil conflicts. It is important to note that mathematical models consider the interaction of explanatory factors with each other, thereby creating feedback effects. Using these methods, Korotayev et al. calculate three possible scenarios for the development of each of the countries under consideration in the twenty-first century: (1) a pessimistic one, (2) an inertial one, and (3) an optimistic one assuming the achievement of sustainable development goals (SDGs) by 2030. The modeling results suggest that the Sahel could become the most disadvantaged region. The four countries of this region are characterized by: (1) a negligible difference between the inertial scenario and the pessimistic scenario; (2) extremely high risks of full-scale civil wars in the near future; and (3) reaching the level of middle-income countries only by the end of this century, even under the most optimistic scenario. Korotayev et al. conclude that the main way of mitigating the risks of sociodemographic collapses is rapid progress toward achieving the SDGs in the very near future, which seems impossible without adequate support from the world community.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    See, e.g., Moller (1968), Choucri (1974), Mesquida and Wiener (1996, 1999), Goldstone (1991, 2001, 2002), Urdal (2004, 2006, 2008), Staveteig (2005), Korotayev et al. (2011, 2014), Goldstone et al. (2012), Farzanegan and Witthuhn (2017), Weber (2019), Cincotta and Weber (2021), Romanov et al. (2021), Korotayev, Sawyer, Gladyshev, et al. (2021); Korotayev, Romanov, et al. (2023), Sawyer et al. (2022).

  2. 2.

    The diffusion of formal education in low- and middle-income countries, at the same time, leads to an increase in the risks of unarmed destabilization (e.g., Korotayev, Bilyuga, & Shishkina, 2017b, 2018; Korotayev et al., 2020; Korotayev, Sawyer, & Romanov, 2021; Sawyer & Korotayev, 2022) and, at the same time, to a decrease in the risks of armed bloody revolutions/civil wars (Urdal, 2008; Østby et al., 2019; Ustyuzhanin et al., 2022). However, it is bloody revolutions/civil wars that have a really strong negative impact on economic growth. Thus, education reduces namely those risks that negatively affect economic growth. Therefore, the impact of the spread of formal education through this channel on economic growth is rather positive, which is also confirmed in models of neoclassical economic growth.

  3. 3.

    Taking into account the fact that under any demographic scenario these countries follow the path of modernization, and this period is always more prone to processes of destabilization and revolutions, as well as due to immature statehood, the growth of nationalism (often in the form of ethnic tribalism), the risks of sociopolitical destabilization in SSA countries remain very high (Korotayev et al., 2011; Bondarenko, 2021; Goldstone et al., 2022; Grinin, 2022b; Grinin & Grinin, 2022).

  4. 4.

    See, e.g., Zinkina and Korotayev (2014a, 2014b, 2017)).

  5. 5.

    See chapter “Future Political Change. Toward a More Efficient World Order” (Grinin, Grinin, & Korotayev, 2023a, this volume) and chapter “Global Ageing – an Integral Problem of the Future. How to Turn a Problem into a Development Driver?” (Grinin, Grinin, & Korotayev, 2023b, this volume).

  6. 6.

    See, e.g., Korotayev et al. (2011, 2015)), Grinin (2012, 2013, 2022a)), Korotayev et al. (2014)), Korotayev, Bilyuga, and Shishkina (2016, 2017a, 2017b, 2018)), Korotayev, Vaskin, and Bilyuga (2017)), Slinko et al. (2017)), Korotayev, Vaskin, et al. (2018), Vaskin et al. (2018)), Korotayev and Shishkina (2020), Korotayev, Vaskin, and Tsirel (2021), Slav et al. (2021), Korotayev, Grinin, et al. (2022).

  7. 7.

    On the Afrasian instability macrozone see, e.g., Korotayev, Issaev, et al. (2016), Korotayev et al. (2019), Medvedev et al. (2022), and Korotayev and Khokhlova (2023).

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Acknowledgment

This work was done with the support of MSU Program of Development, Project No 23-SCH05-03.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. HSE University, Moscow, Russia

    Andrey Korotayev, Vadim Ustyuzhanin & Leonid Grinin

  2. Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    Andrey Korotayev

  3. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

    Andrey Korotayev

  4. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Moscow, Russia

    Sergey Shulgin, Vadim Ustyuzhanin & Julia Zinkina

  5. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

    Julia Zinkina

  6. Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    Leonid Grinin

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

    Viktor Sadovnichy

  2. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

    Askar Akaev

  3. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

    Ilya Ilyin

  4. Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    Sergey Malkov

  5. Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    Leonid Grinin

  6. HSE University, Moscow, Russia

    Andrey Korotayev

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Korotayev, A., Shulgin, S., Ustyuzhanin, V., Zinkina, J., Grinin, L. (2023). Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics: Africa’s Futures. In: Sadovnichy, V., Akaev, A., Ilyin, I., Malkov, S., Grinin, L., Korotayev, A. (eds) Reconsidering the Limits to Growth. World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7_20

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