Abstract
This chapter presents the results of the application of the set of basic models outlined in chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev et al., 2023, this volume) to model the current historical situation and to forecast its further development. Akaev et al. show that the modern historical period is a period of transition from the “epoch of growth,” which followed the industrial revolution of the early nineteenth century, to the “era of deceleration,” one of the strongest indicators of which is a rapid decrease in the growth rate of the Earth's population and its aging. They perform the analysis of the ongoing changes in all spheres of life. Akaev et al show the uniqueness of the ongoing changes and consider alternative options for further development.
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Notes
- 1.
See chapter “Demography. Toward Optimization of Demographic Processes” (Korotayev, Malkov, & Musieva, 2023, this volume) and chapter “Global Aging – An Integral Problem of the Future. How to Turn a Problem into a Development Driver?” (Grinin, Grinin & Korotayev 2023b, this volume) for more detail. See also, e.g., Korotayev, Malkov, and Khaltourina (Korotayev et al., 2006a; Korotayev et al., 2006b), Korotayev et al. (2020), Korotayev et al. (2020).
- 2.
See, e.g., Goldstone (2009, 2021); Korotayev, Zinkina, Bogevolnov, and Malkov (2011), Korotayev and de Munck (2013), Grinin and Korotayev (2014a, 2015), Korotayev and Zinkina (2014), Akaev (2015), Korotayev et al. (2015); Grinin et al. (2016), Korotayev et al. (2020), Pomeranz (2021); see also chapter “High Income and Low Income Countries. Toward a Common Goal at Different Speeds” (Grinin, Malkov, and Korotayev 2023, this volume); about economic growth rates see also chapter “Economics. Optimizing Growth” (Grinin, Grinin, and Malkov 2023a, this volume) and chapter “Technology. Limitless Possibilities, Effective Control” (Grinin & Grinin, 2023b, this volume).
- 3.
On those cycles and their connections with the global dynamics see, e.g., Kondratieff (1926, 1935, 1984), Schumpeter (1939), Forrester (1978, 1981, 1985), Mensch (1979), Mandel (1980). Wallerstein (1984), Freeman (1987), Goldstein (1988), Berry (1991), Gruebler and Nakicenovic (1991), Tylecote (1992), Hirooka (2006), Korotayev, Zinkina, and Bogevolnov (2011), Akaev et al. (2012, 2017), Korotayev and Grinin (2012), Akaev and Sadovnichiy (2016), Grinin et al. (2016), Grinin and Grinin (2016b), Grable (2019). Note that the basic modernization model set out in Sect. 3.1 chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Industrial Society” (Akaev, Malkov, Davydova et al., 2023, this volume) has not been designed to model economic cycles.
- 4.
- 5.
Equations from chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Industrial Society” (Akaev, Malkov, Davydova et al., 2023, this volume).
- 6.
From chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Industrial Society” (Akaev, Malkov, Davydova et al., 2023, this volume).
- 7.
From the same chapter.
- 8.
From the same chapter.
- 9.
- 10.
See Sect. 2.4 of chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Industrial Society” (Akaev, Malkov, Davydova et al., 2023, this volume).
- 11.
The process of deglobalization that has begun recently has no way of completely stopping the process of globalization. Deglobalization in our understanding is a kind of ebb, which will be replaced by a new, stronger flow of globalization (see Grinin & Korotayev, 2021; Grinin et al., 2021; see also Ilyin & Leonova, 2022).
- 12.
See chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Agrarian Society” (Malkov, Kovaleva et al., 2023b, this volume).
- 13.
See chapter “Economics. Optimizing Growth” (Grinin, Grinin, & Malkov, 2023a, this volume).
- 14.
See chapter “Climate and Energy. Energy Transition Scenarios and Global Temperature Changes Based on Current Technologies and Trends” (Akaev & Davydova, 2023, this volume).
- 15.
- 16.
See chapter “Demography. Toward Optimization of Demographic Processes” (Korotayev, Malkov, & Musieva, 2023, this volume) for more detail.
- 17.
For the notion of “Malthusian trap” see chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Agrarian Society” (Malkov, Kovaleva et al., 2023b, this volume).
- 18.
- 19.
Chapter “Technology. Limitless Possibilities, Effective Control” (Grinin & Grinin, 2023b, this volume), chapter “Economics. Optimizing Growth” (Grinin, Grinin, & Malkov, 2023a, this volume), chapter “Socio-Political Transformations. A Difficult Path to Cybernetic Society” (Grinin, Grinin & Malkov, 2023b, this volume), and chapter “Global Aging – an Integral Problem of the Future. How to Turn a Problem into a Development Driver?” (Grinin, Grinin, & Korotayev, 2023b, this volume).
- 20.
It is important to note here that the term “cybernetic society” focuses on the technological foundation of future society, and the term “W-society” characterizes its institutional structure.
- 21.
From chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev, Malkov, Bilyuga et al., 2023, this volume).
- 22.
From chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev, Malkov, Bilyuga et al., 2023, this volume).
- 23.
From chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev, Malkov, Bilyuga et al., 2023, this volume).
- 24.
From chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev, Malkov, Bilyuga et al., 2023, this volume).
- 25.
From chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev, Malkov, Bilyuga et al., 2023, this volume).
- 26.
This is also typical for industrial society.
- 27.
Equations from chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev, Malkov, Bilyuga et al., 2023, this volume).
- 28.
Equation from chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev, Malkov, Bilyuga et al., 2023, this volume).
- 29.
Equation from chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev, Malkov, Bilyuga et al., 2023, this volume).
- 30.
Equations from chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev, Malkov, Bilyuga et al., 2023, this volume).
- 31.
From chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Industrial Society” (Akaev, Malkov, Davydova et al., 2023, this volume).
- 32.
The second phase of demographic transition (leading to a slowdown in population growth) took place in economically high income countries of the world already in the second phase of industrial society. However, on the global scale it manifested itself after the 1960s, which, among other things, led to the acceleration of economic growth in the countries of the World System semi-periphery and periphery [see chapter “Demography Toward Optimization of Demographic Processes” (Korotayev, Malkov, & Musieva, 2023, this volume), as well as Grinin & Korotayev, 2015; Korotayev et al., 2015, Korotayev et al., 2020].
- 33.
A necessary condition for solving problems of this type (environmental, energy-related, etc.) which affect everyone is the development of mechanisms for making collectively agreed decisions and the strengthening of centralized governance.
- 34.
From chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Industrial Society” (Akaev, Malkov, Davydova et al., 2023, this volume).
- 35.
See chapter “Climate and Energy. Scenarios of Energy Transition and Global Temperature Changes Based on Current Technologies and Trends” (Akaev & Davydova, 2023, this volume) for detail.
- 36.
This is a consequence of the decline in the overall rate of profit and the end of an era when the “positive sum game” was the rule rather than the exception.
- 37.
See chapter “Global Aging – an Integral Problem of the Future. How to Turn a Problem into a Development Driver?” (Grinin, Grinin & Korotayev, 2023b, this volume), chapter “Technology: Limitless Possibilities, Effective Control” (Grinin & Grinin, 2023b, this volume) and chapter “Economics. Optimizing Growth” (Grinin, Grinin & Malkov, 2023a, this volume), as well as Grinin et al. (2020), Korotayev et al. (2021), and Korotayev et al. (2023c).
- 38.
On techno-medical systems in cybernetic society see chapter “Analysis of Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Future Cybernetic W-society: Socio-Political Aspects” (Grinin & Grinin, 2023a, this volume).
- 39.
See chapter “Analysis of Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Future Cybernetic W-society: Socio-Political Aspects” (Grinin & Grinin, 2023a, this volume), chapter “Global Aging – an Integral Problem of the Future. How to Turn a Problem into a Development Driver?” (Grinin, Grinin & Korotayev, 2023b, this volume), and chapter “Socio-Political Transformations. A Difficult Path to Cybernetic Society” (Grinin, Grinin, & Malkov, 2023b, this volume) for more detail.
- 40.
So, despite the fact that the Byzantine Empire, medieval monarchies, the USSR, and Germany of the 1930s are all X-type societies, their external appearance and internal content are very different from each other.
- 41.
Malkov (2021), using the basic model of economic competition, shows that when moving from a “positive-sum game” to a “zero-sum game”, competitive interactions inevitably lead to the victory of one of the parties and to economic monopoly. Under these conditions, liberal market mechanisms are transformed into distributive ones, dependent on the monopolist. The question is who the distributor will be, and on what principles the distribution will be carried out. In the modern world, such monopolists can be states, transnational companies and financial capital (in the economic sphere), Internet giants (in the information sphere).
- 42.
An analogue of “bread and circuses” for the plebs in ancient Rome.
- 43.
See Sect. 3 of chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Global Phase Transitions” (Malkov et al., 2023a, this volume).
- 44.
Buddhism played the same role in South Asia, and Confucianism did it in East Asia.
- 45.
The communist ideology in its classical form is not suitable for this purpose, since it is a product of the industrial age and reflects its features. At present, attempts to formulate an ideology adequate to the modern era are multiplying, but the process of its formation has not yet been completed.
- 46.
- 47.
The upper row of the calculation in Fig. 8 corresponds to the case when the competition between the actors is antagonistic, respectively, in Eqs. (45) from chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev, Malkov, Bilyuga et al., 2023, this volume) coefficients сij < 0.
- 48.
The bottom row of the calculation in Fig. 8 corresponds to the variant when there is no antagonistic competition between the actors with a simultaneous increase in the intensity of interaction (with an increase in the values of the coefficients Di in Eqs. (45) from the same chapter).
- 49.
The decline in the birth rate is largely due to the processes of socio-economic modernization and the growth of the urban population, for which small family model is typical.
- 50.
See chapter “Demography. Toward Optimization of Demographic Processes” (Korotayev, Malkov & Musieva, 2023, this volume), chapter “Africa – the Continent of the Future. Challenges and Opportunities” (Grinin & Korotayev, 2023, this volume), and chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Africa’s Futures” (Korotayev, Shulgin et al., 2023, this volume).
- 51.
For more detail see chapter “Demography. Toward Optimization of Demographic Processes” (Korotayev, Malkov & Musieva, 2023, this volume).
- 52.
Indeed, in the1960s, the growth rate of the world population was the highest in the history of humankind (see Fig. 1).
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This work was done with the support of MSU Program of Development, Project No 23-SCH05-03.
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Akaev, A. et al. (2023). Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics: Modern Society and a Look into the Global Future. Cybernetic W-Society. In: Sadovnichy, V., Akaev, A., Ilyin, I., Malkov, S., Grinin, L., Korotayev, A. (eds) Reconsidering the Limits to Growth. World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7_19
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