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Modeling Social Self-organization and Historical Dynamics: Global Phase Transitions

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Reconsidering the Limits to Growth

Part of the book series: World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures ((WSEGF))

Abstract

This chapter presents the results of using the set of basic models outlined in Chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” to model transitional eras, when, due to technological revolutions, there is a sharp acceleration in the pace of economic (and, after that, demographic) development, a “society of stability/stagnation” is transformed into a “growth society,” the dominance of X-type social structures is replaced by the dominance of Y-type structures. Examples of such transitional eras are the Axial Age (in the first millennium BCE) and the industrial era (the last 200 years). Malkov et al. consider characteristic features of transitional epochs, analyze the logic of the evolution of economic and social processes, and model these mathematically. It is shown that in the initial phases of such eras, there is a hyperbolic growth of the main demographic and economic characteristics, and at the final stage, there is a sharp slowdown, accompanied by strong social instability and a reverse transition from the dominance of Y-type social structures to the dominance of X-type structures.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    On the speed of historical and technological progress, see, e.g., Grinin (2007), Grinin and Grinin (2016), Grinin et al. (2020).

  2. 2.

    Ulam (1958), p. 5; von Foerster et al. (1960), von Hoerner (1975), Taagepera (1976, 1979), Kapitza (1992, 1996, 1999a, 1999b, 2003, 2006, 2010), Kremer (1993), Belavin et al. (1998), Tsirel (2004, 2008, 2009), Kurzweil (2001, 2005), Nazaretyan (2005, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2020), Panov (2005, 2011, 2017, 2020), Korotayev (2005, 2006a, 2006b, 2007, 2013, 2020a, 2020b), Korotayev and Khaltourina (2006), Korotayev et al. (2006a, 2006b, 2016), Markov and Korotayev (2007, 2008), Markov et al. (2010), Korotayev and Grinin (2013), Dobrolyubov (2016), Korotayev and Malkov (2016), Korotayev and Zinkina (2017), Podlazov (2017), Fomin (2020), Last (2020), LePoire and Devezas (2020), Malkov (2020), Panov et al. (2020), Widdowson (2020).

  3. 3.

    See, e.g., Childe (1934, 1944), Watts (1977), Harris and Hillman (1989), Eshed et al. (2004), Grinin and Grinin (2016), Grinin et al. (2023), as well as chapter “Technology. Limitless Possibilities, Effective Control” (Grinin & Grinin, 2023b, this volume).

  4. 4.

    E.g., Frank and Gills (1993), Childe (1948, 1952), Bondarenko and Korotayev (2003), Grinin and Korotayev (2006, 2009a, 2012a), Grinin (2009), Grinin et al. (2004), Korotayev and Grinin (2013).

  5. 5.

    E.g., Jaspers (1953), Eisenstadt (1982), Bellah (2005), Grinin and Korotayev (2009b), Bellah and Joas (2012), Panov et al. (2020).

  6. 6.

    For example, it is very difficult to evaluate the GDP in a hunter-gatherer society.

  7. 7.

    When constructing a graph, the inventions of the period before 1 CE were taken into account with weight coefficients reflecting their significance in the subsequent history of humankind (weight coefficients were determined through expert procedures).

  8. 8.

    On X and Y structures, see also chapter “Economics. Optimizing Growth” (Grinin et al., 2023a, this volume) and chapter “Socio-Political Transformations. A Difficult Path to Cybernetic Society” (Grinin et al., 2023b, this volume),

  9. 9.

    The term “typical” is used here because in the pre-industrial period, within the framework of the agrarian macrophase of historical development, there were periods/phases of demographic and technological growth due to fundamental technological shifts (“Urban Revolution”, due to the technological breakthroughs of the 4th millennium BCE; “Axial Age Revolution”, due to the transition to iron metallurgy and accompanying technological breakthroughs). The term “typical agrarian society” refers to an agrarian society beyond the time limits of the indicated periods of demographic and technological growth.

  10. 10.

    As before, it is taken into account that the speed of economic processes (the characteristic time of production cycles is months and years) significantly exceeds the rate of demographic and technological changes (the characteristic time is decades), and therefore Tikhonov’s theorem can be applied to replace the economic differential equation with an algebraic one.

  11. 11.

    The cautious attitude towards innovation in traditional societies is due, among other things, to the fact that these societies, as a rule, are in the “Malthusian trap”, when a significant part of society is concerned about physical survival and is not ready for drastic changes that upset the fragile balance.

  12. 12.

    This, in turn, stimulates further innovative search, encourages innovative activity, raises the social status of innovators, and creates a favorable environment for development in society.

  13. 13.

    At the beginning of the Axial Age, the leader in the formation of Y-institutions in the Circum-Mediterranean region was Ancient Greece, at the beginning of the Modern period this role was played by Britain.

  14. 14.

    See e.g., Goldstone (2009, 2021), Grinin and Korotayev (2015), Korotayev et al. (2015), Pomeranz (2021).

  15. 15.

    See e.g., Korotayev et al. (2011, 2020), Korotayev and de Munck (2013), Korotayev and Zinkina (2014), Akaev (2015), Grinin and Korotayev (2015), Korotayev et al. (2015), Grinin et al. (2016).

  16. 16.

    See also Taagepera (1976, 1979), Tsirel (2004), Korotayev (2005, 2007), Podlazov (2017).

  17. 17.

    Interestingly, the effect of technological acceleration is very reminiscent of the well-known effect of accelerating speciation in biology, which has been observed over the past 500 million years and, apparently, is due to the fact that earlier species change their habitat by their vital activity, making it more diverse, saturating it with organic matter, generating new biological niches, thereby creating favorable conditions for the emergence of new species (see, e.g., Markov & Korotayev, 2007, 2008).

  18. 18.

    Periods of stability can be characterized in terms of game theory as periods of dominance of the “zero-sum game” in the interactions of social actors: under conditions of a limited resource base, victory in the competitive struggle of one of the actors leads to the death (physical, economic, political) of the defeated. Therefore, within society, competition was condemned (so as not to lead to its destabilization), while solidarity and mutual assistance were encouraged. However, in relation to other societies, antagonistic relations and the “image of the enemy” were common.

  19. 19.

    Periods of growth can be characterized in terms of game theory as periods of dominance of the “positive sum game” in the interactions of social actors: under conditions of a growing resource base, the victory of one of the actors does not lead to the death (physical, economic, political) of the defeated, but stimulates the latter be more competitive. Competition generates economic activity leading to a further expansion of the resource base. Accordingly, it is not condemned, but welcomed, which leads to the formation of an internally competitive society.

  20. 20.

    In game theory, a “zero-sum game” is a game in which one player's gain equals the other's loss.

  21. 21.

    This happens very rarely. History, on the contrary, is replete with examples when states and entire civilizations fell into decay and disintegrated under the influence of adverse climatic and environmental changes.

  22. 22.

    Such societies included the city-states of Ancient Mesopotamia at the beginning of the “urban revolution”, the poleis of Ancient Greece at the beginning of the “Axial Age”, England at the beginning of the Modern period. Further on, the locally emerged institutional Y-structures begin to spread and scale. Thus, in the Axial Age many achievements of the poleis of Ancient Greece were borrowed and used by the Ancient Romans when creating their empire. In the Modern era, the achievements of Britain were borrowed and used by the United States when creating “Pax Americana”.

  23. 23.

    In game theory, a “positive sum game” is a game in which all players can benefit (but perhaps to varying extent).

  24. 24.

    This was one of the reasons why, at the end of the Roman Empire, Christianity became the state religion.

  25. 25.

    So, for example, the religion that contributed to the transformation of the ancient Greek X-society into the Y-society was the religion of the Olympian gods with its physicality and very competitive spirit. The religion that contributed to the transformation of the ancient Roman Y-society (Roman Republic) into the X-society (the Roman Empire of the Dominate period) was the Christian religion, which proclaimed the virtue of “love thy enemy.” The confessions that contributed to the transformation of European medieval X-society into Y-society of modern times were certain versions of Protestantism with their spirit of individualism and active competitiveness.

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Acknowledgment

This work was done with the support of MSU Program of Development, Project No 23A-SCH05-03.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

    Sergey Malkov

  2. HSE University, Moscow, Moscow, Russia

    Sergey Malkov, Leonid Grinin, Anton Grinin & Jameelah Musieva

  3. Faculty of Global Studies, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

    Anton Grinin & Jameelah Musieva

  4. HSE University, Moscow; Lomonosov Moscow State University; Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    Andrey Korotayev

  5. Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    Sergey Malkov

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  1. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

    Viktor Sadovnichy

  2. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

    Askar Akaev

  3. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

    Ilya Ilyin

  4. Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    Sergey Malkov

  5. Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    Leonid Grinin

  6. HSE University, Moscow, Russia

    Andrey Korotayev

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Malkov, S., Grinin, L., Grinin, A., Musieva, J., Korotayev, A. (2023). Modeling Social Self-organization and Historical Dynamics: Global Phase Transitions. In: Sadovnichy, V., Akaev, A., Ilyin, I., Malkov, S., Grinin, L., Korotayev, A. (eds) Reconsidering the Limits to Growth. World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7_18

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