Abstract
This chapter presents the results of using the set of basic models described in the chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” to model the dynamics of an industrial society. Both interactions in the “society–nature” system and social interactions within society between the main social groups (including economic and political interactions) are considered. It is shown that industrial society is characterized by the continuous growth of the main demographic and economic characteristics due to the high pace of technological development and the expansion of the resource base associated with this. Based on the modeling of social interactions, the main structural and functional features of an industrial society are identified, leading to the formation of social structures of the so-called Y-type (which are characterized by a market economy, republican forms of government, and individualism in the socio-psychological sphere). It is shown that a necessary condition for the effective functioning of Y-type social structures is economic growth, in the absence of which they experience crisis and transformation into structures of other types.
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Notes
- 1.
From chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev et al., 2023a, this volume).
- 2.
From chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev et al., 2023a, this volume).
- 3.
On the issues connected with the “Malthusian trap” (see, e.g., Malthus, 1798; Artzrouni & Komlos, 1985; Steinmann & Komlos, 1988; Kögel & Prskawetz, 2001; Komlos & Artzrouni, 1990; Steinmann et al., 1998; Wood, 1998; Komlos & Nefedov, 2002; Korotayev & Khaltourina, 2006; Korotayev et al. 2006a, 2006b, 2011, 2014; Grinin et al., 2009; Zinkina & Korotayev, 2014a, 2014b; Korotayev et al., 2016; Korotayev & Zinkina, 2014, 2015, 2022; Korotayev, 2017).
- 4.
From chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev et al., 2023a, this volume).
- 5.
From chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev et al., 2023a, this volume).
- 6.
From chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev et al., 2023a, this volume).
- 7.
From chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev et al., 2023a, this volume).
- 8.
From chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev et al., 2023a, this volume).
- 9.
From chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev et al., 2023a, this volume).
- 10.
- 11.
This is the so-called first phase of demographic transition when economic development leads to explosive acceleration of population growth due to the decreasing mortality (especially, infant mortality)—[see, e.g., Chesnais, 1992; Caldwell et al., 2006; Reher, 2011; Dyson, 2010; Livi-Bacci, 2012, as well as chapter “Demography. Toward Optimization of Demographic Processes” (Korotayev et al., 2023a, this volume)].
- 12.
Around 500 of 1990 international dollars annually, according to Maddison’s (2001) estimation.
- 13.
In Britain, the proportion of the urban population reached 50% by 1850 (Clark, 2007).
- 14.
At the same time, the value of GDP/capita in high income countries can exceed the world average by several times.
- 15.
As a rule, it took place in the areas of intensive agriculture and animal husbandry.
- 16.
For simplicity, a closed system is considered: there are no external actors (trading partners, neighboring states).
- 17.
Taking into account the purchasing power of money, that is, taking into account its depreciation due to inflation.
- 18.
To simplify the description, it is assumed that on the considered time scales, the change in the population size can be neglected.
- 19.
Permissible values are restricted by the level of physical survival for workers, and zero profit for entrepreneurs.
- 20.
- 21.
- 22.
- 23.
The condition of closedness is fundamental. It means that all commodity and cash flows are localized within the considered economic system, that is, the condition of system autonomy is fulfilled.
- 24.
The situation is similar if the first subsystem seeks to gain an advantage through price dumping.
- 25.
In real situations, to prevent monopoly, antimonopoly laws and special regulations are adopted, but these are external regulation measures. We are interested in the dynamics of competitive interactions in their “pure” form.
- 26.
This may be a loan issue to enterprises and/or the population, or an increase in the money supply due to an increase in government spending or due to a positive balance of international trade, etc.
- 27.
This “being forced to innovate” is the reason why in the industrial age the value of coefficient c in the equation of technological dynamics (9) in chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev et al., 2023a, this volume) becomes higher than in the agrarian age.
- 28.
In relation to the competitive market economy, we can only talk about dynamic equilibrium, similar to the equilibrium of a riding cyclist, who, in order not to fall, must pedal with all the might.
- 29.
Western countries, starting from the eighteenth century, supported the growth of the resource base and the “positive sum game” for their economies, in particular, through the policies of colonialism and neo-colonialism.
- 30.
Growth can also be hampered by increased costs, for example, to address the growing environmental problems.
- 31.
In this sense, the history of Britain in the second half of the seventeenth to early eighteenth centuries is indicative, when, after half a century of civil wars, new rules of political struggle were established, same for all.
- 32.
Shown in Fig. 13 in Sect. 3.2.1 of chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev et al., 2023a, this volume).
- 33.
The social structure of a feudal society is perhaps even more complex than an industrial one due to many gradations and ranks.
- 34.
- 35.
- 36.
External causes are usually due to the influence of the more high income countries.
- 37.
- 38.
This process can develop further through the so-called second demographic transition (e.g., Lesthaeghe, 2020) and lead to a general decrease in the population.
- 39.
An autonomous system of differential equations is a special case when the argument t is not explicitly included in the functions defining the system.
- 40.
- 41.
See Sect. 2.4 of chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Agrarian Society” (Malkov et al., 2023b, this volume), Sect. 2.4 of chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Industrial Society” (Akaev et al., 2023b, this volume), and Sect. 3 of chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Global Phase Transitions” (Malkov et al., 2023a, this volume).
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This work was done with the support of MSU Program of Development, Project No 23A-SCH05-03.
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Akaev, A. et al. (2023). Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Industrial Society. In: Sadovnichy, V., Akaev, A., Ilyin, I., Malkov, S., Grinin, L., Korotayev, A. (eds) Reconsidering the Limits to Growth. World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7_17
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