Abstract
This chapter presents the results of applying the set of basic models described in the previous chapter to model the dynamics of an agrarian society. Both interactions in the “society–nature” system and social interactions within society between the main social groups (including economic and political interactions) are considered. It is shown that agrarian society is characterized by cyclical demographic and economic dynamics due to the limited resource base (primarily limited land resources) and the low level of technological development. Based on the modeling of social interactions, the main structural and functional features of a typical agrarian society are revealed. It is shown that in agrarian societies, the mechanisms of social self-organization mainly lead to the formation of social structures of the so-called X-type.
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Notes
- 1.
From the previous Chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev et al., 2023, this volume).
- 2.
From the previous chapter.
- 3.
From the previous Chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev et al., 2023, this volume).
- 4.
In this case, we neglect the volume of livestock production.
- 5.
From the previous chapter.
- 6.
We assume that in the absence of land shortage, the area of land that a household cultivates is determined by the needs and physical capabilities of the household.
- 7.
Slow technological growth is a characteristic feature of agrarian society; thus, we can assume that dS/dt ≈ 0 in the basic model when considering typical cases. However, in some historical periods technological growth accelerated, which also entailed serious demographic and social changes. These situations are considered in Chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Global Phase Transitions” (Malkov et al., 2023, this volume).
- 8.
At the same time, it should be borne in mind that the demographic capacity of the territory can grow (and the attractor can shift towards higher values of N) if land productivity (γ) increases.
- 9.
On the issues connected with the “Malthusian trap” see, e.g., Malthus, 1798; Artzrouni & Komlos, 1985; Steinmann & Komlos, 1988; Kögel & Prskawetz, 2001; Komlos & Artzrouni, 1990; Steinmann et al., 1998; Wood, 1998; Korotayev et al., 2011, 2014; Zinkina & Korotayev, 2014a, 2014b; Korotayev et al., 2016; Korotayev & Zinkina, 2014, 2015, 2022.
- 10.
On the pre-modern and early modern sociodemographic cycles see, e.g., Usher, 1989; Chu & Lee, 1994; Komlos & Nefedov, 2002; Nefedov, 2004, 2013, 2014a, 2014b; Korotayev & Komarova, 2004; Korotayev & Khaltourina, 2006; Turchin & Korotayev, 2006; Turchin & Nefedov, 2009; Malkov, 2009; Korotayev et al., 2006, 2007, 2011; Lee & Zhang, 2010; Grinin & Korotayev, 2012; Korotayev et al., 2016; Goldstone, 2016; Korotayev & Zinkina, 2015; Korotayev, 2017; Turchin, 2018.
- 11.
On social explosion as a form of socio-political destabilization of the social systems, see Sect. 2.1.
- 12.
An alternative way to keep the value of x at a level above x0 in an agrarian society was to continuously expand the area of the society R0 (through migration or wars) or artificially limit population growth (for example, by infanticide, the practice of late marriages, etc.).
- 13.
- 14.
From the previous Chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev et al., 2023, this volume).
- 15.
From the previous chapter.
- 16.
- 17.
Actually, this chapter offers a model of a Western European feudal society, in which the role of the state and officials was weaker than in Asian, especially East Asian societies. This was one of the important reasons why the transition to a capitalist society happened in Europe (see Grinin & Korotayev, 2015). We have opted to concentrate on this type of agrarian societies that was typical for pre-modern Western Europe, because the first independent transition to industrial society took place in this part of the world, and we needed such a model for our further mathematical investigation of the spontaneous phase transition from the agrarian to industrial society. Thus, the specified mathematical model of agrarian society is not applicable to most other agrarian societies that were extremely diverse in their organization. For example, it is not applicable, to pre-modern agrarian societies of the Middle East, India, China, let alone Sub-Saharan Africa, New Guinea, or Pre-Columbian Americas. Of course, the Western European model is also very simplified.
- 18.
Accounting for the purchasing power of money, that is, taking into account their depreciation in the presence of inflation.
- 19.
To simplify the description, it is assumed that on time scale under consideration, the change in the population size can be neglected.
- 20.
This method is used by dictatorial regimes or invaders.
- 21.
Permissible values mean the level of physical survival for peasants, and the level of “decent” existence for landowners, which tend to have different values in different societies.
- 22.
- 23.
“Zero-sum game” (antagonistic game) is a game theory term. Antagonistic game is a non-cooperative game in which two or more players participate, and the gain of one player is equal to the loss of the other.
- 24.
In some cases, when the strength of political competitors is approximately equal, an internally competitive regime of the “alliance of the weak against the strong” can be established (see Fig. 19 in Sect. 3.2.2 of Chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” [Akaev et al., 2023, this volume]). Such a regime breeds fragmentation, and inability to unite against external enemies. Sooner or later, a strong external enemy appears, who conquers such a social system using the internal contradictions in it (see, for example, the conquest of Russian principalities by the Mongols, or the partitions of Poland in the eighteenth century)
- 25.
Section 3.2.2 of Chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev et al., 2023, this volume).
- 26.
Section 3.2.1 of Chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev et al., 2023, this volume).
- 27.
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Malkov, S., Kovaleva, N., Grinin, L., Korotayev, A. (2023). Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Agrarian Society. In: Sadovnichy, V., Akaev, A., Ilyin, I., Malkov, S., Grinin, L., Korotayev, A. (eds) Reconsidering the Limits to Growth. World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7_16
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