Abstract
In this introductory chapter, Sadovnichy et al. offer a preliminary analysis of the previous reports to the Club of Rome. This report is the result of more than 10 years of work on modeling and forecasting world dynamics and it reflects the views of Russian scientists on the future of global development. The main goals of the book are to do a preliminary work on the following tasks: (1) To give an analysis of changes through which the World System has come to its present state, based on an integrated approach (that incorporates the world-systems, historical and evolutionary approaches), on mathematical modeling, as well as on a systematic view of society, in which changes in one subsystem cause transformations in others; (2) To define the main vectors of transformations of the World System; (3) To make a detailed forecast of the development of all the main subsystems of society and the World System, while presenting three or four horizons of changes (from short-term to ultra-long-term up to a hundred years); (4) To present different development scenarios and make recommendations on how to switch to the most favorable development scenario. Since the publication in 1972 of the first report “The Limits to Growth” (by Donella and Dennis Meadows, Jorgen Randers and William Behrens III), which first drew attention of the world community to the problem of limitations to the possibilities of a secure world development, the views of the Club of Rome experts on the factors that negatively affect the dynamics and nature of global development have significantly evolved. If in 1972 they spoke about the exponential growth of the world population as the main factor in depletion of natural resources, then in later reports, amid stabilization of global demographic growth, this problem started to be explained by the imperfection of the capitalist economy and the inability of modern states to make decisions on self-limitation in favor of long-term results. This introductory chapter analyzes the evolution of views of the Club of Rome experts that was influenced by noticeable transformations taking place in the world, which determines the need for careful reflection and work on forecasts for future development. So, during the past 50 years, both the concept and understanding of these limits have significantly changed. Sadovnichy et al. believe that, at present, the evolution of the World System has reached a new critical milestone. The World System and humanity as a whole are currently moving into a fundamentally new phase of historical development when the old economic and social technologies no longer work as efficiently as before or even begin to function counterproductively, which leads the World System into a systemic crisis. There is a transition of human society to a new phase, the shape of which has not yet been determined. Therefore, Sadovnichy et al. insist that new approaches are needed both to the analysis of the global situation and to forecasts. The title of this report to the Club of Rome, “Reconsidering the Limits”, certainly echoes the famous “The Limits to Growth”. We would like to state clearly that our title should not give a misleading impression of where the thinking of the Club of Rome is today, especially in connection to the 50th anniversary of the famous report. What is more, we entirely recognize the presence of objective limits to growth. However, these limits are different in different periods, and besides the borders of limits are not frozen. So they might be expanded significantly as a result of special planning and efforts. In some respect, our report can be regarded as preliminary research attempting to understand how we can expand the limits in the future. This is no coincidence, as 2022 marked the fiftieth anniversary of this report, which continues to influence minds. However, in this report, the concept of limits is understood more broadly than usual, implying situations when such limits become less important. This introductory chapter spells out the methodological assumptions of the report. Particular attention is paid to the point that the changes taking place in the world are fundamental and long-term; therefore, they should be considered in a broad historical context (and not just as a continuation of the trends of the twentieth century). Special attention is paid to the explicit consideration of social and political factors and their influence on other factors, which makes it possible to consider the adaptability of the social system to external changes (sociopolitical factors are considered as key to ensuring adaptability). Attention is drawn to the adaptability of the social system to external changes, which is why the study is also aimed at modeling the basic processes of interaction between various spheres of life at the respective phases of historical development. The chapter ends with a description of how the present volume is organized.
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Notes
- 1.
For our view on the future of capitalism see Grinin et al. (2022).
- 2.
For our analysis of this report see Grinin and Grinin (2021).
- 3.
Under the guidance of Viktor Sadovnichy and Askar Akaev at the Lomonosov Moscow State University has been modeling and forecasting world dynamics (see, e.g., Sadovnichy et al., 2012, 2014, 2017; references to research work of other members of this group are provided in corresponding chapters; see also Grinin et al., 2017a, b, 2020, 2021a, b).
- 4.
Especially, if there is a serious ideological breakthrough (see, e.g., Álvarez Pereira, 2016). As is noted by Rodolfo A. Fiorini, Carlos Álvarez Pereira et al. (2020: 56), “individuals have within themselves vast resources for self-understanding and for changing their self-conceptions, basic attitudes and self-directed behavior, and these resources can be tapped if a climate of facilitative psychological conditions is provided”.
- 5.
See chapter “Conclusion. Reconsidering The Limits. Suggestions (Come on!)” (Sadovnichy et al., 2023c, this volume).
- 6.
See chapter “Technology. Limitless Possibilities, Effective Control” (Grinin & Grinin, 2023b, this volume), chapter “Economics. Optimizing Growth” (Grinin et al., 2023c, this volume), chapter “Socio-Political Transformations. A Difficult Path to Cybernetic Society” (Grinin et al., 2023e, this volume), chapter “Future Political Change. Toward a More Efficient World Order” (Grinin et al., 2023b, this volume), chapter “High Income and Low Income Countries. Toward a Common Goal at Different Speeds” (Grinin et al., 2023a, this volume), and chapter “Africa – the Continent of the Future. Challenges and Opportunities” (Grinin & Korotayev, 2023, this volume).
- 7.
Chapter “High Income and Low Income Countries. Toward a Common Goal at Different Speeds” (Grinin et al., 2023a, this volume).
- 8.
Chapter “Africa – the Continent of the Future. Challenges and Opportunities” (Grinin & Korotayev, 2023, this volume).
- 9.
See chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” (Akaev et al., 2023a, this volume), chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Agrarian Society” (Malkov et al., 2023c, this volume), chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Industrial Society” (Akaev et al., 2023b, this volume), chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Global Phase Transitions” (Malkov et al., 2023b, this volume), chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Modern Society and Problems of Global Transition” (Akaev et al., 2023d, this volume), chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Modern Society and a Look into the Global Futures: Cybernetic W-Society” (Akaev et al., 2023c, this volume), chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Africa’s Futures” (Korotayev et al., 2023b, this volume), chapter “Analyzing Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Future Cybernetic W-Society: Socio-Political Aspect” (Grinin & Grinin, 2023a, this volume), and chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Life Quality Index” (Malkov et al., 2023a, this volume).
- 10.
See chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. An Overview” (Sadovnichy et al., 2023d, this volume).
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Sadovnichy, V. et al. (2023). Introduction: Hoping for the Future. In: Sadovnichy, V., Akaev, A., Ilyin, I., Malkov, S., Grinin, L., Korotayev, A. (eds) Reconsidering the Limits to Growth. World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7_1
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