Abstract
In this chapter we discuss the main challenges and complexities in making health security decisions. This analysis may explain why taking health security decisions is a challenging process and highlight the benefits of using more systematic decision processes and reasoned approaches when making these decisions. We also examine how health security decisions are typically analyzed in practice and discuss the shortcomings intrinsic to the common assessment methods. The complexities involved in making these decisions, combined with these inadequate assessment methods, establish the basis for the need to improve the quality of health security decisions and to apply Health Decision Analysis.
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Notes
- 1.
We define unstructured decision making as those decision processes that lack both a clear framework to represent the main components of the decision and eschew the sound rules on how decision alternatives should be chosen to maximize societal value. In practice, they typically involve an informal discussion regarding which choices to make, which is focused on an ad hoc appraisal of the benefits and drawbacks of each decision alternative.
- 2.
The expected impact of T1 is 0.8 × 100 = 80 expected deaths and the expected impact of T2 is 0.1 × 10,000 = 1,000 expected deaths. The second chapter introduces the concept of expected value, which is detailed in the ninth chapter.
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Montibeller, G. (2022). Making Health Security Decisions: Challenges and Complexities. In: Decision Making for Enhanced Health Security. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, vol 328. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-98132-7_1
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