Abstract
In recent years trends in analyzing and forecasting financial time series moves from classical Box-Jenkins methodology to machine learning algorithms because of the non-linearity and non-stationary of the time series. In this study, we employed a machine learning algorithm called support vector machine to predict the daily price direction of BIST 100 index. In addition, we use random forest algorithm for feature selection and showed that by removing some features from the model, performance of the model increases.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Kim, K. J. (2003). Financial time series forecasting using support vector machines. Neurocomputing, 55(1–2), 307–319.
Huang, W., Nakamori, Y., & Wang, S. Y. (2005). Forecasting stock market movement direction with support vector machine. Computers & Operations Research, 32(10), 2513–2522.
Tay, F. E., & Cao, L. (2001). Application of support vector machines in financial time series forecasting. Omega, 29(4), 309–317.
Bogullu, V. K., Cihan H. D., & David, L. E. (2002). Using neural networks and technical indicators for generating stock trading signals. In ANNIE 2002, American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME).
Chen, A. S., Leung, M. T., & Daouk, H. (2003). Application of neural networks to an emerging financial market: Forecasting and trading the Taiwan Stock Index. Computers & Operations Research, 30(6), 901–923.
Wang, J. Z., Wang, J. J., Zhang, Z. G., & Guo, S. P. (2011). Forecasting stock indices with back propagation neural network. Expert Systems with Applications, 38(11), 14346–14355.
Ticknor, J. L. (2013). A Bayesian regularized artificial neural network for stock market forecasting. Expert Systems with Applications, 40(14), 5501–5506.
Thawornwong, S., & Enke, D. (2004). The adaptive selection of financial and economic variables for use with artificial neural networks. Neurocomputing, 56, 205–232.
Rather, A. M., Agarwal, A., & Sastry, V. N. (2015). Recurrent neural network and a hybrid model for prediction of stock returns. Expert Systems with Applications, 42(6), 3234–3241.
Chong, E., Han, C., & Park, F. C. (2017). Deep learning networks for stock market analysis and prediction: Methodology, data representations, and case studies. Expert Systems with Applications, 83, 187–205.
Vapnik, V. (2013). The nature of statistical learning theory. Springer Science & Business Media.
Cortes, C., & Vapnik, V. (1995). Support-vector networks. Machine learning, 20(3), 273–297.
Drucker, H., Burges, C. J., Kaufman, L., Smola, A. J., & Vapnik, V. (1997). Support vector regression machines. In Advances in neural information processing systems (pp. 155–161).
AK, S. J. (2002). Least squares support vector machines. World Scientific.
Alpaydin, E. (2020). Introduction to machine learning. MIT Press.
Burkov, A. (2019). The hundred-page machine learning book. Quebec City, Canada: Andriy Burkov.
Kuhn, M., & Johnson, K. (2013). Applied predictive modeling. New York: Springer.
Breiman, L. (2001). Random forests. Machine Learning, 45(1), 5–32.
Ulrich, J., Ulrich, M. J., & RUnit, S. (2019). Package TTR.
Diethelm, W., Tobias S., & Yohan C. (2017). Package fTrading.
Retrieved 20 February, 2020 from https://www.investopedia.com/.
Tay, F. E. & Cao, L. (2001). Application of support vector machines in financial time series forecasting. Omega, 29(4), 309–317.
Fatma, B. K., & Kamil, D. Ü. (2020). A two-step machine learning approach to predict S&P 500 bubbles. Journal of Applied Statistics. https://doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2020.1823947.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Ethics declarations
No conflict of interest was declared by the authors.
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2021 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Ünlü, K.D., Potas, N., Yılmaz, M. (2021). Forecasting Direction of BIST 100 Index: An Integrated Machine Learning Approach. In: Erçetin, Ş.Ş., Açıkalın, Ş.N., Vajzović, E. (eds) Chaos, Complexity and Leadership 2020. Springer Proceedings in Complexity. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-74057-3_5
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-74057-3_5
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-74056-6
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-74057-3
eBook Packages: Physics and AstronomyPhysics and Astronomy (R0)